ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND PROGRAMMING TECHNIQUES BEING BASED ON STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE AND THEIR APPLICATION TO AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS.

基于随机支配的经济模型和编程技术及其在农业经济分析中的应用。

• 批准号: 07556050
• 负责人: KUBO Yoshiharu
• 金额: $ 3.65万
• 依托单位: OBIHIRO UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND VETERINARY MEDICINE
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1995 至 1996
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-07556050/
• 关键词: Stochastic donimance; Logistic function; Weibull distribution; Double exponential function; Rice cultivar selection; Rice yield damage distribution; Expected quantity of information; E-H approach; 累積分布; ロジスティク曲線; 災害要因別被害率分布; 期待情報量; E-Hアプローチ

Methods which suggest the most dominant combination of activities under the imperfect knowledge are requested for making decision in the field of agriculture, because of the existence of meteoric disaster. In regarding to this problem the concept of stochastic dominance (SD) was proposed in 1997's. This study is purported to make its applicability clear with developing application models for problem solving and their necessary software. Main findings are as follows. 1. Literature review suggested us there is a scarce paper applyed the SD and its related model. Mean-gini programming and optimum hedging ratio approach with the use of extended mean-gini are applicable models being developed. 2. Some introductry analysis with the SD to crop yield fluctuation in Hokkaido gave a proof its applicability. Experimental analysis had been conducted to the problems, such as comparison of crop yield stablity on 8 crops in Tokachi, land classification on rice and wheat in Sorati, rice caltivar selection and distribution analysis on rice yield damage, and gave proof to high applicability on the SD related approach. 3. An application analysis conducted in Tohoku region at both prefecture and municiparity level explained high applicability and showed clearly that SD information had close relation to the existence of influence due to hazardous wind called Yamase. 4. Some mathematical models such as logistic, double exponential and Weibull distribution were taken into consideration as models for estimating probability distribution. 5. Programming model, so to say E-H approach, which explicitly contain the utilization opportunity of information was investigated and exhibitory farm business analysis was offered and demonstrated its solution could be obtained by a method of goal programming.

由于气象灾害的存在，农业领域的决策需要在不完全知识条件下提出最优活动组合的方法。针对这一问题，1997年提出了随机优势的概念。本研究旨在通过开发问题解决的应用模型及其必要的软件来明确其适用性。主要调查结果如下。1.文献回顾表明，应用SD及其相关模型的研究文献并不多见.均值-基尼规划和最优套期保值比率方法与扩展的均值-基尼正在开发的适用模型。2.用SD对北海道农作物产量波动的初步分析证明了SD的适用性。对十胜县8种作物产量稳定性比较、索拉提县稻麦土地分类、水稻品种选择和水稻产量损失分布分析等问题进行了试验分析，证明了SD相关方法的适用性。3.在东北地区进行的应用分析在两个县和市一级解释了高适用性，并清楚地表明，SD信息有密切的关系，由于危险的风称为山濑的影响的存在。4.采用Logistic、双指数和威布尔分布等数学模型作为概率分布的估计模型。5.本文研究了明确包含信息利用机会的规划模型，即E-H方法，给出了一种可供选择的农场经营分析方法，并论证了它的解可以用目标规划方法求得。