DEVELOPMENT OF FREDIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION PROCESSING METHODS FOR FARM MANAGEMENT.

用于农场管理的FRED诊断信息处理方法的开发。

• 批准号: 04660232
• 负责人: KUBO Yoshiharu
• 金额: $ 1.22万
• 依托单位: OBIHIRO UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND VETERINARY MEDICINE
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1992 至 1993
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-04660232/
• 关键词: Farm management game; Monte Carlo simulation; Data envelopment analyis; Technical efficiency; Fussy linear programming; Fussy linear regression; 農業経営自己学習モデル; 統計的優位性; ミーン・ジニ計画法; エキスパートシステム

1. Farm management game which is appropriated to a mixed farming consisting of field crops and dairy business is develped as an approach to prediagnostic system for farm management. Data of crop yield distribution for last 20 years are provided for information with unceratin yield conditions and various types of Monte Carlo simulation techniques are applied to this simulator. Stochastic technique generates milk yield for each cow. Experimental application explains it usefull. 2. As mathematical programming methods with fussy constraints can be used to prediagnostic analysis of farm business, we applied this method to an analysis of field crops farm with fussy technical and goal constraints. We find that the fussy linear programming models conveys various usefull information for improving farm business in advance. 3. The data envelopment analysis reduces production (or cost) frontier whic envelopes a set of data and then measures technical efficiency of individual farm comparing with respective frontier position, is also an useful method for diagnosis of farm business. Therefore concepts for measuring technical efficiency and problemes in regards to measuring methods are investigated. Concrete measurement of technical efficiency approaching to data on roughage production on dairy farmming in Hokkaido explains this approach useful and we could find that there is a slight difference in technical efficiencys between different measuring methods. 4. It is the most important job to estimate goal yield responding to predetermined level of inputs in order to obtain necessary information for prediagnosis. Regarding to this, a linear regression analysis with fussy constraints is proposed and theoretically investigated. Main findings are, firstly linear programming method is applicable to estimate parameters of fussy regression, and secondly, this approach conveys useful yield estimate because manager's subjective idea can be introduced interactively on the process of determin

1.农场经营对策是一种适合于由大田作物和奶牛业组成的混合经营的农场经营的预诊断系统。该模拟器提供了近20年的作物产量分布资料，以供不确定产量条件下的参考，并采用了多种蒙特卡罗模拟技术。随机技术生成每头奶牛的产奶量。实验应用说明它是有用的。2.由于具有模糊约束的数学规划方法可以用于农场经营的预诊断分析，因此我们将该方法应用于具有模糊技术和目标约束的大田作物农场分析。我们发现，模糊线性规划模型预先传达了各种有用的信息，以改善农场业务。3.数据拟合分析法通过对一组数据进行拟合，缩小生产（或成本）前沿面，并与各自前沿面位置进行比较，测算出各个农场的技术效率，也是一种对农场经营状况进行诊断的有效方法。因此，测量技术效率的概念和测量方法方面的问题进行了研究。通过对北海道奶牛场粗饲料生产数据的技术效率的具体测定，说明了这种方法的有效性，不同测定方法的技术效率略有差异。4.为了获得预诊断所需的信息，最重要的工作是估计响应于预定输入水平的目标产量。针对这一问题，提出了模糊约束下的线性回归分析方法，并进行了理论研究。结果表明，线性规划方法适用于模糊回归模型的参数估计，由于在确定过程中可以交互地引入管理者的主观想法，因此该方法给出了有用的收益估计。