SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF RAINFALL BY RADAR DATA AND CONSTRUCTION OF FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM IN URBAN AREA

雷达数据短期降雨预测及城市洪水预警系统建设

• 批准号: 07558059
• 负责人: NOGUCHI Masato
• 金额: $ 2.43万
• 依托单位: NAGASAKI UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1995 至 1997
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-07558059/
• 关键词: short-term prediction; RADAR data of rainfall; FRICS data; neural network; integrated management; flood analysis; urban storm drainage; warning sysytem; 被圧・不圧の下水道流解析; GISデータ; 降雨-流出解析; physically-based model

Research has been carried out in order to complete the following matters : (1) construction of warning system by RADAR data. (2) precise estimation of runoff considering the urban facilities for storm drainage, and (3) development of refuge system based on integrated management of river and watershed. These kinds of matters surely support the sound and sustainable development of our life.Attainning the above-mentioned purpose, short-term prediction of rainfall using the RADAR data distributed by the Foundationn of River & Basin Integrated Communications (FRICS) has been discussed, enthusiastically. Based on the results, it becomes clear that neural network scheme is available for precisely predicting the rainfall movement, even though identification of model parameter becomes necessary in order to instruct its system. Next, development of the physically based rainfall-runoff model has been aimed to perform the integrated management of water at urban area. Namely, importance of knowledge-based information system has been emphasized for an appropriate dissemination of disaster prevention and/or mitigation.Finally, some efforts have been devoted to make available the above-mentioned matters. It was usual that several kinds of informations for disaster prevention and/or mitigation was stored by means of books and reports, but their effects on warning are not so effective due to the restriction of its currency. Then, how to establish the available warning system for disaster and also how to construct the database of information have been discussed. In addition, report of these studies has been published and delivered to the relevant organizations.

研究工作主要完成以下几个方面的工作：（1）雷达数据预警系统的构建。(2)结合城市雨水排放设施，精确估算径流量;（3）建立基于河流和流域综合管理的避难系统。为达到上述目的，利用河流流域综合通信基金会（FRICS）提供的雷达资料进行短期降雨预报，已引起人们的热烈讨论。结果表明，神经网络方案可以较好地预报降雨的移动，但为了指导系统的工作，需要对模型参数进行识别。其次，发展以物理为基础的水-径流模型，以实现城市水资源的综合管理。也就是说，强调了以知识为基础的信息系统对于适当传播防灾和/或减灾的重要性，最后，为提供上述事项作出了一些努力。过去，防灾减灾的各种信息通常以图书、报告的形式存储，但由于其流通性的限制，其预警效果并不明显。在此基础上，探讨了如何建立有效的灾害预警系统，以及如何建立灾害预警信息数据库。此外，这些研究的报告已经出版并提交给有关组织。

项目成果

M.Noguchi, H.M.M.Tahat, W.Nishida, and K.Hoshino: "Sensitivity of the Physiographic Factors of the Basin in a Physically-Based Rainfall-Runoff Modelling" Proc.of the Inf.conf.on Water Resour.& Environ.Res.2. 21-28 (1996)

M.Noguchi、H.M.M.Tahat、W.Nishida 和 K.Hoshino：“基于物理的降雨径流模型中流域自然地理因素的敏感性”Proc.of the Inf.conf.on 水资源。

K.Inoue, M.Takeda, and K.Toda: "Refuge Analysis under Storm Surge Flooding in an Urban Bay Area" Proc.of the Fourth Japan-Chinese(Taipei)Joint Seminar on Natural Hazard Mitigation. 275-284 (1997)

K.Inoue、M.Takeda、K.Toda：“城市湾区风暴潮洪水下的避难分析”第四届日中（台北）自然灾害减灾联合研讨会论文集。

H.M.M.Tahat,Masato Noguchi and others: "The sensitivity of A Physically-Based Rainfall-Runoff Model to the Physiographic Factors of Real Basin" 水工学論文集. 39. 37-42 (1995)

H.M.M. Tahat、Masato Noguchi 等人：“基于物理的降雨径流模型对实际盆地地貌因素的敏感性”《水利工程杂志》39. 37-42 (1995)。

M.Noguchi, H.M.M.Tahat, W.Nishida, and K.Hoshino: "Sensitivity of the Physiographic Factors of the Basin in a Physically-Based Rainfall-Runoff Modelling" Proc.Int.Cof.on Water Resour.& Environ.Res.Vol.2. 21-28 (1996)

M.Noguchi、H.M.M.Tahat、W.Nishida 和 K.Hoshino：“基于物理的降雨径流模型中流域自然地理因素的敏感性”Proc.Int.Cof.on 水资源。

M.Noguchi: "Several Kinds of Remarks on the Water Environmental Assessment in Nagasaki-Present and Future Conditions of Water Environment- (in Japanese)" Rep.Fac.of Eng., Nagasaki Univ.Vol.27, No.49. 329-334 (1997)

M.Noguchi：“长崎水环境评估的几种评论——水环境的现状和未来状况——（日语）”Rep.Fac.of Eng.，长崎大学第27卷，第49期。