SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF RAINFALL BY RADAR DATA AND CONSTRUCTION OF FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM IN URBAN AREA

研究完成了以下几项工作：(1)雷达数据预警系统建设。 （2）考虑城市暴雨排水设施的径流精确估算，以及（3）基于河流和流域综合管理的避难系统的发展。这些问题无疑支持我们生活的健康和可持续发展。 为了实现上述目的，利用河流与流域综合通信基金会（FRICS）分发的雷达数据进行短期降雨预测已经引起了热烈的讨论。根据结果​​，很明显，神经网络方案可用于精确预测降雨运动，尽管模型参数的识别对于指导其系统是必要的。接下来，开发基于物理的降雨径流模型的目的是对城市地区的水进行综合管理。也就是说，强调了基于知识的信息系统对于适当传播防灾和/或减轻灾害的重要性。最后，已经做出了一些努力来提供上述事项。通常，多种防灾减灾信息都通过账簿和报告的方式存储，但由于其货币的限制，其预警作用并不那么有效。然后，讨论了如何建立可用的灾害预警系统以及如何构建信息数据库。此外，这些研究报告已发表并提交给相关组织。

Research has been carried out in order to complete the following matters : (1) construction of warning system by RADAR data. (2) precise estimation of runoff considering the urban facilities for storm drainage, and (3) development of refuge system based on integrated management of river and watershed. These kinds of matters surely support the sound and sustainable development of our life.Attainning the above-mentioned purpose, short-term prediction of rainfall using the RADAR data distributed by the Foundationn of River & Basin Integrated Communications (FRICS) has been discussed, enthusiastically. Based on the results, it becomes clear that neural network scheme is available for precisely predicting the rainfall movement, even though identification of model parameter becomes necessary in order to instruct its system. Next, development of the physically based rainfall-runoff model has been aimed to perform the integrated management of water at urban area. Namely, importance of knowledge-based information system has been emphasized for an appropriate dissemination of disaster prevention and/or mitigation.Finally, some efforts have been devoted to make available the above-mentioned matters. It was usual that several kinds of informations for disaster prevention and/or mitigation was stored by means of books and reports, but their effects on warning are not so effective due to the restriction of its currency. Then, how to establish the available warning system for disaster and also how to construct the database of information have been discussed. In addition, report of these studies has been published and delivered to the relevant organizations.