MACROECONOMIC STUDY OF TRADE DEFICITS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY : THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS USING DIRECTION OF TRADE STATISTICS

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In this project, first we considered whether the U.S.economy can simultaneously resolve her triple dilemma ; i.e.the output stagnation, the government deficits and the foreign trade imbalances. Using a two-country Metzlerian income-trade model, we investigated the effects of the coordinating spending policies, i.e.the government stimulates its spendings when it is in surplus and decreases them in deficits. It is shown that the exactly coordinated bilateral increases of domestic demands in both countries deteriorate trade imbalances. The effects of coordination policy opening domestic markets for foreign traders are also considered. The conclusions obtained are extended to N countries case.Next, we examined a simple North-South trade model based on A.K.Dutt, where the North exports capital goods and the South exports material goods. The effects of introducing technical changes reducing material inputs in the North production are examined and it is shown that the equilibrium rate of profit may decrease, which is seemingly paradoxical to OKISHIO theorem on technical change.Thirdly, the empirical studies using Direction of Trade Statistics of IMF are made by regrouping the world economy into six relevant regions, i.e. Japan, North America, Europe, Oceania, NIEs and ASEAN.The effects of the September 1985 "Plaza Accord" are apparently traced in Japan, Europe and Oceania, but are not so effective in other regions. Some studies on relations among exports, GDP and exchange rates of six regions are presented using annual data from 1980 to 1992.Finally, we considered the microeconomic problems taking up the disastrous area in HANSHIN earthquake. The progress of aging and de-industrialization of Japanese economy due to yen appreciation makes the situation worse. Some policy proposals relating employment in the suffered area are considered.