Collection and Analysis of the Data for an elucidation of the stock price mechanism

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I conducted a survey twice a year, in August and February for these three years. Questionnaires that consist of about 40 questions were sent to about 400 institutional investors, i.e.banks, securities companies, investment trust, and investment consultant companies. The response rate was about 35 to 38%. In this survey, I asked their expectations on the future stoch prices in Japan and the U.S., evaluation of the current market conditions, predictions about future land prices, and so on. Responses are summarized in a ten-page report every time.This survey is a part of those conducted since 1989. Main questions have been asked in the U.S.by Professor Shiller of Yale University. A comparison of the Japanese and U.S.investors' answers gives us very interesting knowledge, and we wrote a paper elucidating the reason of the crash of the Japanese stock prices since 1990 (Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1996).I wrote an article analyzing the current situation of the U.S.stock prices (The Nikkei Daily Newspaper, October 1997). I judge that the U.S.stock prices are in a bubble situation, but the bubble is smaller than the one in the late 1980s in Japan. I also point out there that the U.S.investors are cooler than the Japanese investors in the late 1980s.Now, I am going to test whether or not the investors' expectations are rational expectation. Many previous studies argued that expectation data from surveys is not rational, and one paper argued that the deviation from rational expectation could be filled if we admit that a part of market participants is chartist. Since we asked our respondents if they are fundamentalist or chartist, we can make clear whether or not this hypothesis is valid, using our survey data ; which is now we are going to do.