Open-Economy Macroeoonomic Dynamics with Stagnation and the Spill-Over Effect of Economic Policy

1. 我用两个持续停滞的国家建立了一个动态货币模型。每个家庭在本国货币、本国债券和外国债券中分配其资产，并使其终身效用最大化。如果家庭有永不满足的流动性偏好，就会出现持续停滞，而不会出现新老凯恩斯主义者所假定的任何永久性扭曲。在这种情况下，拥有较大外国资产的国家往往面临失业，而拥有较小外国资产的国家往往实现充分就业。我还研究了失业率与批发行业效率之间的关系，宏观经济政策对有效需求的自身和溢出效应等。使用两个数据集，县和个人（日经雷达），并分别应用参数和非参数方法，Ogawa（大阪大学），吉田（大阪府立大学），我实证研究了流动性偏好不满足的有效性。我们发现流动性偏好的不满足得到了强有力的支持。在与埃塞克斯大学的拉希里（S. Lahiri）的联合研究中，我们制定了一个外国直接投资的国际模型。并通过就业或环境的变化，检查本地含量要求或利得税对国内外福利的影响。

1. I formulate a dynamic monetary model with two countries in which persistent stagnation occurs. Each household allocates its asset among the home currency, home bonds, and foreign bonds, and maximizes its lifetime utility. If the household has insatiable liquidity preference, persistent stagnation can occur without any permanent distortion that Old and New Keynesians assume. In this setting a country with larger foreign assets tends to face unemployment whereas a country with smaller assets tends to realize full employment. I also examine the relationship between the unemployment rate and the efficiency of the wholesale industry, the own and spillover effects of macroeconomic policies on effective demand, etc.2. Using two data sets, prefectural and individual (Nikkei Radar), and applying parametric and nonparametric methods to each of them respectively, Ogawa (Osaka Univ. ), Yoshida (Osaka Prefecture Univ. ), and I empirically investigate the validity of insatiable liquidity preference. We find that insatiable liquidity preference is strongly supported.3. In a joint research with S. Lahiri (Essex Univ. ) we formulate an international model with foreign direct investment. and examine the effects of local content requirements or a profit tax on the welfare of the home and foreign countries through changes in employment or environment.