Construction and simulation analysis of environmental and economic model for the dynamics of global environmental indicators

第一年（1996年）和第二年（1997年）进行了环境指标调查和全球环境经济模型调查。特别是后一个课题，旨在为构建一个可以显示全球生态系统评价的全球环境经济模型，即全球环境指标，获得一个清晰的视角。研究结果发表在《生态系统的经济评价的动态路径与社会对稀缺性的认识：模拟分析》（国民经济杂志第183卷第5期）论文中。论文对生态系统的经济评价的动态路径与社会对稀缺性的认识之间的关系进行了研究。我构建了一个简单的全球模型，其中包括生态系统的存量和经济系统的约束。为了简单起见，我把这个模型称为EEI（经济系统生态系统指标）模型。既然我们有了男人 ...更多信息 全球生态系统的类型很多，很难全部处理。我们采用森林生态系统作为全球生态系统的指标。我们希望在另一个工作中推广并去除这个约束，该模型是基于W.D.Nordhause的DICE模型，这是最优经济增长模型。骰子模型有两个部分。一部分代表全球经济体系，另一部分是全球变暖问题的原因和影响。我把这两部分分开，只使用全球经济体系的一部分。然后将其与全球生态系统的动力学模型联系起来，主要分析结果概括如下。(1)我可以展示一种最优的森林生态系统的减少在20世纪和恢复在21世纪。(2)我可以捕捉到生态系统的经济价值的路径，它具有一个倒U形，即价值在前三十或四十年增加，然后逐渐减少。(3)替代弹性率的降低所表现的稀缺性的增加提高了森林生态系统的存量路径和生态系统的边际经济价值路径。少

In the first year (1996) and the second year (1997), surveys for environmental indicator and for global environmental economic model had been done. Especially the latter subject was intended to obtain a clear perspective for constructing a global environmental and economic model that can show evaluation of global ecosystem, in other words, the global environmental indicators.In the final year (1998), 1 constructed an actual simulation model. The results are shown in the paper "Dynamic Paths of Economic Valuation and the social Recognition of Scarcity for Ecosystems : A Simulation Analysis, " (Kokumin keizai zassi, Vol. 183, No. 5).In the paper, I investigated the relationship between dynamic paths of the economic valuation and the social recognition of scarcity for ecosystems. I composed a simple global model that incorporates the stock of ecosystems and constraints by economic systems. For simplicity I called the model EEI (Economic system Ecosystem Indicator) model. Since we have man … More y types of global ecosystems, it is difficult to treat all of them. We employed forest ecosystems as an index of the global ecosystem. We would like to generalize and remove this constraint in another work.The model was based upon DICE model by W.D.Nordhause, which is the optimal economic growth model. DICE model have two parts. One parts represents the global economic system and the other part do the causes and effects of the global warming problem. I separated these two parts and only use the part of global economic system. Then it was connected with the dynamic model of the global ecosystem.The main results of our analysis is shortly summarized as follows. (1) I could show a kind of optimality of the reduction of forest ecosystems in the late twentieth century and the recovery in twenty first century. (2) I could capture the paths of the economic valuation for the ecosystems, which have the shape of an inverse U, that is, the values increase in first thirty or forty years then decrease gradually. (3) the increase of scarcity that was expressed by the reduction of the rate of elasticity of substitution lifts the paths of stock of the forest ecosystems and the paths of marginal economic values of the ecosystems. Less