Construction and simulation analysis of environmental and economic model for the dynamics of global environmental indicators

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In the first year (1996) and the second year (1997), surveys for environmental indicator and for global environmental economic model had been done. Especially the latter subject was intended to obtain a clear perspective for constructing a global environmental and economic model that can show evaluation of global ecosystem, in other words, the global environmental indicators.In the final year (1998), 1 constructed an actual simulation model. The results are shown in the paper "Dynamic Paths of Economic Valuation and the social Recognition of Scarcity for Ecosystems : A Simulation Analysis, " (Kokumin keizai zassi, Vol. 183, No. 5).In the paper, I investigated the relationship between dynamic paths of the economic valuation and the social recognition of scarcity for ecosystems. I composed a simple global model that incorporates the stock of ecosystems and constraints by economic systems. For simplicity I called the model EEI (Economic system Ecosystem Indicator) model. Since we have man … More y types of global ecosystems, it is difficult to treat all of them. We employed forest ecosystems as an index of the global ecosystem. We would like to generalize and remove this constraint in another work.The model was based upon DICE model by W.D.Nordhause, which is the optimal economic growth model. DICE model have two parts. One parts represents the global economic system and the other part do the causes and effects of the global warming problem. I separated these two parts and only use the part of global economic system. Then it was connected with the dynamic model of the global ecosystem.The main results of our analysis is shortly summarized as follows. (1) I could show a kind of optimality of the reduction of forest ecosystems in the late twentieth century and the recovery in twenty first century. (2) I could capture the paths of the economic valuation for the ecosystems, which have the shape of an inverse U, that is, the values increase in first thirty or forty years then decrease gradually. (3) the increase of scarcity that was expressed by the reduction of the rate of elasticity of substitution lifts the paths of stock of the forest ecosystems and the paths of marginal economic values of the ecosystems. Less