Prediction of impact of global warming on geographical distributions of disease vector mosquitoes

根据文献资料，分析了32种蚊种（伊蚊13种、库蚊7种、按蚊7种、库蚊1种、弓形虫2种、恙螨2种）温度与未成熟发育的关系。(1)亚北极地区伊蚊和Culiseta物种的发育阈值为c .5或更低，明显低于温带、亚热带和热带物种。(2)温带、亚热带和热带物种的发育阈值约为10个或更高。温暖地区的物种不一定有更高的发育阈值。(3)发育阈值的特异性内变异未被发现。(4)热带和亚热带物种的旧资料较少。这种缺乏必须得到弥补，因为从全球变暖的角度来看，这些物种是最危险的。对7种（14种）非滞育卵的耐寒性和抗旱性进行了室内试验。包括的物种有；主要蚊种有：泡蚊（热带）、褐皮伊蚊（热带）、埃及伊蚊（热带-亚热带）、白纹伊蚊（热带-暖温带）、河纹伊蚊（亚热带-暖温带）、黄纹伊蚊（亚热带-寒温带）、加洛伊蚊（寒温带）。(1)在湿度较高的情况下，泡蚊和黄斑伊蚊可在零度以下存活数天。(2)埃及伊蚊在零度以下至少能存活数天。这种植物抗旱性强。(3)白纹伊蚊的抗寒性存在种内差异。来自温带地区的猕猴可以在零度以下的温度下存活至少20天。该物种的抗旱能力仅次于埃及伊蚊。(4)河伊蚊和黄伊蚊亚温带和温带菌株的抗寒能力与白纹伊蚊温带菌株相当。这些物种对干旱的抵抗力较弱。(5)加洛伊蚊的抗寒能力最强，在零度以下的环境下可存活2个月以上。这个物种最不耐干旱。(6)卵在零下温度下的生存能力是决定地理分布的重要属性，但由于抗寒性以外的因素，实际分布可能比预期的抗寒性窄。研究结果将用于预测全球变暖对蚊子地理分布的影响。少

Relation between temparature and immature develpment was analyzed for 32 mosquito species (13 Aedes, 7 Culex, 7 Anopheles, 1 Culiseta, 2 Toxorhynchites, 2 Psorophora) based on literat ure data. (1) Developmental thresholds of Aedes and Culiseta species of the subarctic zone are c a.5ﾟC or lower and destinctly lower than temperate, subtropical and tropical species. (2) Devel opmental thresholds of temperate, subtropical and tropical species are ca. 10ﾟC or higher. Species of warmer regions do not necessarily have higher developmental thresholes. (3) Intra-specific variations for developmental thersholds are not recognized.(4) There are a few old data for tropical and subtropical species. This lack must be fulfillled, because those species are most dangerous from the view point of global warming.Laboratory experiments for cold-and drought-resistance of non-diapause eggs were performed for 7 species (14 starins) of Aedes (stegomyia) species. Species included are ; Aedes paullusi (distribu … More tion tropcal), Aedes scutelaris (torpical), Aedes aegypti (tropical-subtropical), Aedes albopictus (tropical-warm temperate), Aedes riversi (subtropical-warm temparate), Aedes flavopictus (subtropical-cold temparate), Aedes galloisi (cold temparate). (1) Aedes paullusi and Aedes scutellaris can survive for a few days under sub-zero temparatures if humidities are high. (2) Aedes aegypti can survive at least for several days under sub-zero temparatures. This speoies has high drought-resistance. (3) Aedes albopictus show intra-specific variation in cold-resistance. Starins from temperate regions can survive at least for 20 days under sub-zero temparatures. This species has drought-resistance ability next to Aedea aegypti. (4) Both subtro pical and temperate strains of Aedes riversi and Aedes flavopictus has cold-resistance ability comparable to temparate stains of Aedes albopictus. These species are less resistant to drouget. (5) Aedes galloisi is most resistant to coldness, being capable of suvival for more than 2 months under sub-zero temparatures. This species is least resistant to drought. (6) Capability of eggs to survive under sub-zero temperatures is an improtant attribute determining geographica 1 distribustions but real distributions may be narrower than expected from cold resistace ability due to factors other than cold resistance.The results will be used for prediction of impact of global warming on geographical distribution of mosquitoes. Less