Experimental study of contingent judgment and decision making and investigation for psychometric and mathematical model as well as the representation theorem.

偶然判断和决策的实验研究以及心理测量和数学模型以及表示定理的调查。

• 批准号: 11610067
• 负责人: TAKEMURA Kazuhisa
• 金额: $ 2.24万
• 依托单位: University of Tsukuba
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1999 至 2000
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11610067/
• 关键词: judgment; decision making; experiment; mathematical model; psychometric model; representation theorem; 状況依存性; 心理計量; 心理実験; 評価

Contingency in judgment and decision-making is considered to be a phenomenon in which judgment and decision making are dependent with contexts, verbal phrases cues. The purpose of this study is to examine contingent judgment and decision making through several psychological experiments, and to make psychometric models, mathematical models, and representation theorems for the predictions of judgment and decision phenomena. First, we clarified basic types of situations and contexts of judgment and decision-making using social survey methods. Second, we found qualitative and quantitative properties of contingent judgment and decision-making through psychological experiments. Third, we found qualitative properties of cognitive process in contingent judgment and decision-making using process-tracing techniques in psychological experiments. Fourth, based on the empirical findings through experiments and social survey, we made psychometric models and mathematical models to describe contingent judgment and decision-making. Finally, we found representation theorems of some mathematical models. These findings have been reported at international and domestic academic meetings. Some of the findings have been published in academic journals and books.

判断和决策的偶然性被认为是判断和决策依赖于上下文、言语短语线索的现象。本研究的目的是通过多个心理学实验来检验偶然判断和决策，并建立用于预测判断和决策现象的心理测量模型、数学模型和表示定理。首先，我们利用社会调查的方法，明确了判断和决策的情境和背景的基本类型。其次，我们通过心理学实验发现了偶然判断和决策的定性和定量特性。第三，我们在心理学实验中使用过程追踪技术发现了偶然判断和决策中认知过程的定性特性。第四，根据实验和社会调查的实证结果，我们建立了心理测量模型和数学模型来描述偶然判断和决策。最后，我们找到了一些数学模型的表示定理。这些研究结果已在国际和国内学术会议上发表。一些研究结果已发表在学术期刊和书籍上。

项目成果

Nakamura, K.: "Threshold models for compatibility on finite sets."Journal of Mathematical Psychology. 44. 353-382 (2000)

Nakamura, K.：“有限集相容性的阈值模型。”数学心理学杂志。

竹村和久: "広告コミュニケーション効果の状況依存性とその説明"広告科学. 39. 163-169 (1999)

竹村和久：“广告传播效果的情境依赖性及其解释”《广告科学》39。163-169（1999）。

Michael Smithson,: "Human judgement under sample space igmorance"Risk, Decision and Policy. 5. 135-150 (2000)

迈克尔·史密森（Michael Smithson）：“样本空间无知下的人类判断”风险、决策和政策。

竹村和久: "広告コミュニケーション効果の状況依存性とその説明"広告科学. Vol.39. 163-169 (1999)

竹村和久：“广告传播效果的情境依赖性及其解释”《广告科学》第 39 卷。163-169（1999）。

Smithson, M.: "Human judgment under sample space Ignorance."Risk, Decision, & Policy. 5. 135-150 (2000)

Smithson, M.：“样本空间无知下的人类判断。”风险、决策、