A Multidisciplinary Study of World Food Demand and Supply

第二次世界大战后，农业技术的改进和作物种植面积的扩大促进了世界农业生产的增长。然而，人口爆炸、经济增长和粮食需求结构的变化，可耕地、水资源等自然资源的有限性，自然资源的枯竭，以及地球上的农业政策等社会经济因素，造成了南方大量饥饿人口与北方大量过剩人口的矛盾共存。关于未来世界粮食供需，(1)大多数日本农业经济学家和Lester Brown认为日本将面临严重的粮食短缺，而(2)美国农业部、世界银行、国际粮食政策研究所、MOIRA估计日本将面临严重的粮食过剩。(3)粮农组织和日本农林水产省估计介于两者之间。(2)组和(3)组的估计基于计量经济模型，由于计量经济模型非常僵化，不能灵活地适应实际情况，往往导致他们对未来的预测存在偏差。在这个研究项目中，根据经济分析、统计研究、实地调查和其他有关资料分析，对世界粮食需求和供应进行了定性而非定量的估计。最终报告将很快以日文和英文出版。

The agricultural technological improvements and expansion of crops planted area during the post World War II period had contributed growth of world agricultural production. However population explosion, economic growth and changes in the food demand structure, limitation of such natural resources as arable land and water, exhaustion of natural resources, and agricultural policy and other socio-economic factors on the earth have caused contradictory coexistence of huge number of the hungry in the South and a large number of the over-fed in the North.About the future of world food demand and supply, (1) the most Japanese agricultural economists and Lester Brown believe that it will face severe food shortage, while (2) the USDA, the World Bank, IFPRI, MOIRA estimate it will face severe surplus. (3) FAO and Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery estimate in between. The estimates of the (2) and the (3) groups bases themselves on econometric models, and because the econometric models are very rigid and cannot adjust to the actual situation flexibly often lead to biases in their future projections.In this research project a qualitative and not quantitative estimate of world food demand and supply based on economic analyses, statistical studies, field surveys and other related information analyses was done. A final report will soon be published in Japanese and English.