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Analysis of the world rice market by historical and public economics view points

从历史和公共经济学角度分析世界大米市场

基本信息

批准号：
14560185
负责人：
TSUJII Hiroshi
金额：
$ 2.24万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2004
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

There representative researcher has studied the relationship between the thinness, instability, and unreliability of the world rice market in comparison with the world markets of wheat and maize, and the rice self-sufficiency policy of Asian countries. The first reason of the thinness and instability of the world rice market is the fact that 90% of the world total rice production is created by half a billion small family farms in Asia. Further more, about 0.5 billion of the world total 0.8 billion hungry are concentrated in Asia. The most Asian countries have sought to attain domestic rice price stability by rice self-sufficiency policy because rice is the staple food, the wage goods, and the political goods in the sense that rice price instability leads to domestics political instability. This objective was attained by separating domestic rice markets from the world rice market by the border policy. Consequently domestic rice price stabilization accelerated the fluctuation of the worl … More d trade price of rice. As described above the thinness of the world rice market and Asian rice self-sufficiency policy mutually enforces each other. Thus the thinness of the world rice market will continue to be so in the future. Asain countries will regress to the rice self-sufficiency policy. The level of concentration of the world wheat and maize markets is similar to the world rice market. The level of commodity standardization is more developed fir wheat and maize than rice as shown by the fact that there are efficient fixtures markets for wheat and maize, while there is no efficient futures market for rice. Consequently the world wheat and maize markets are thicker and more stable than the world rice market. These thinness and self-sufficiency policy of the world rice market must be taken into account when international trade rules are negotiated in, e. g, the WTO multilateral trade negotiations.In 19^<th> century the trade price of wheat and rice were about the same. But in the last half of the 20^<th> century, the world trade price of wheat has become about a half of the world trade price of rice. This change is probably caused by the fact that's faster production growth and technological growth for wheat in the new world was realized in comparison with rice, and this fast wheat production growth has surpassed the growth of wheat import demand. I hypothesize that the relative trade price of wheat to rice has declined a lot, but the level of oligopolistic condition and price stickiness for wheat must have increased.The final report and several journal papers have been published based on the research results of this research projects. Less

有代表性的研究人员研究了世界大米市场与世界小麦和玉米市场相比的稀薄、不稳定和不可靠性与亚洲国家大米自给自足政策之间的关系。世界稻米市场的薄弱和不稳定的第一个原因是，世界稻米总产量的90%是由亚洲的5亿个小型家庭农场创造的。此外，世界8亿饥饿人口中约有5亿人集中在亚洲。大多数亚洲国家都试图通过大米自给自足政策来实现国内大米价格的稳定，因为大米是主食，工资商品和政治商品，从某种意义上说，大米价格不稳定会导致政治不稳定。这一目标是通过边境政策将国内大米市场与世界大米市场分开来实现的。国内米价的稳定加速了世界米价的波动。 ...更多信息大米的贸易价格。如上所述，世界稻米市场的薄弱和亚洲稻米自给自足政策相互促进。因此，未来世界稻米市场将继续如此清淡。东盟国家将倒退到大米自给自足的政策。世界小麦和玉米市场的集中程度与世界稻米市场相似。小麦和玉米的商品标准化水平比稻米更发达，这表现在小麦和玉米有有效的固定装置市场，而稻米没有有效的期货市场。因此，世界小麦和玉米市场比世界稻米市场更丰富、更稳定。国际稻米贸易规则的谈判必须考虑到世界稻米市场的这种单薄性和自给自足政策。在19^<th>世纪，小麦和大米的贸易价格大致相同。但在20^世纪的后半叶<th>，小麦的世界贸易价格已成为大米世界贸易价格的一半左右。这一变化可能是由于新大陆小麦的生产增长和技术进步比水稻快，而且这种小麦生产的快速增长超过了小麦进口需求的增长。我假设小麦对大米的相对贸易价格下降了很多，但小麦的寡头垄断程度和价格粘性一定有所增加。根据本研究项目的研究结果，最终报告和几篇期刊论文已经发表。少