Growth Effects of Public Pensions and Long-Term Care

报告由七章组成。第一章概述了本研究的目的和主要成果。第二章“养老金与增长：一个财务视角”，在假设三种税基，即工资收入、资本收入和综合收入的情况下，分析了无资金来源的公共养老金的增长效应。结果表明，根据经济发展阶段改变税基是一种简单易行的方法，可以有效地诱导公共养老金的增长效应。第三章“养老金与增长：家庭内部转移的考虑”分析了基于中年双向家庭内部转移的公共养老金的宏观经济效应。其中一个很强的政策含义是，公共养老金可以用来引导经济从停滞均衡走向增长均衡。第四章最优养老金制度探讨了某种公共养老金是否实现了社会最优。答案通常是否定的，尽管公共养老金在一定程度上内生了代际溢出…人力资本形成的作用更大。尽管如此，公共养老金对于实现资源和时间的最佳分配是有效的。第五章公共长期照护与成长分析公共长期照护的宏观经济效应。就像养老金一样，公共长期护理可以将经济从停滞均衡引导到增长均衡。此外，在公共长期护理计划下，其规模更大，因为实物转让的性质本质上具有投资于人力资本的额外激励。我们的研究结果支持日本目前的公共长期护理保险制度。第六章“失业保险和公共养老金的改革”讨论了在什么条件下失业保险和公共养老金的改革可以帕累托改进。假设劳动力参与具有集聚效应，我们表明，减少失业和鼓励失业者获得通用技能等政策变化可以得到每一代人的支持。第七章“增长与不平等”从人口统计学角度分析了增长与不平等之间的关系。在不久的将来，我们可能会发现自己处于停滞不前和不公平的境地。如果这种不平等在年轻工人和老年退休人员之间产生严重冲突，那么社会保障体系就无法得到维护。如果政府想要避免这种情况，就应该推行有利于年轻劳动者的政策，比如对储蓄减税，以促进资本形成。较少

The report consists of seven chapters. Chapter 1 summarizes the purpose and key results of this research. Chapter 2 "Pension and growth : a financial perspective" analyzes the growth effect of unfunded public pensions, assuming three alternative tax base, i.e., wage income, capital income, and comprehensive income. It shows changing the tax base according to the stage of economic development is an easy and useful method to induce the growth effect of public pensions. Chapter 3 "Pension and growth : a consideration for intrafamily transfers" analyzes the macroeconomic effect of public pensions based on a two-way intrafamily transfer in middle age. One of the strong policy implications is public pensions can be used to lead economy from a stagnant equilibrium to a growth equilibrium.Chapter 4 "Optimal pension system" discusses whether some kind of public pension achieve social optimum. The answer is no in general, although public pensions partly endogenize the intergenerational spillover … More effect of human capital formation. Nevertheless public pensions are effective to achieve optimal allocations of resource and time. Chapter 5 "Public long-term care and growth" analyzes the macroeconomic effect of public long-term care. Like a pension, public long-term care can lead economy from a stagnant equilibrium to a growth equilibrium. Further the magnitude is larger under public long-term care scheme because the nature of in-kind transfer has intrinsically an additional incentive to invest in human capital. Our result supports the current system of public long-term care insurance in Japan. Chapter 6 "Reforms in unemployment insurance and a public pension" discusses under what conditions the reforms in unemployment insurance and a public pension can be Pareto-improving. Assuming that labor force participation has an agglomeration effect, we show policy changes such as reducing unemployment and encouraging the unemployed to acquire general skills can be supported by every generations. Chapter 7 "Growth and inequality" analyzed the relationship between growth and inequality from a demographic point of view. We may find ourselves in a stagnant and inequitable situation in the near future. Social security systems cannot be preserved if the inequality generates a serious conflict between younger workers and older retirement. If the government would like to avoid it., it should pursue a policy in favor of younger workers such as tax reduction of savings in order to enhance capital formation. Less