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Development of

发展

基本信息

批准号：
13660243
负责人：
HOSHINO Satoshi
金额：
$ 0.32万
依托单位：
Kobe University (2002)Okayama University (2001)
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2002
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

(1) In this research project, I finalized the nation-wide, two-level database on land use, natural-and socioeconomic conditions. Using this database, I applied both a single-level (conventional) multivariate regression model and a two-level multivariate regression model (the level 1 : municipalities, the level 2 : prefectures). The results shows that the topographic factors, the farm management conditions and the urbanization factors were the core factors that decided the share of farmland and its change. I carried out regression analysis at prefecture level, in which the criterion variables are the random terms at prefectural level (the outputs form the multilevel analysis) and the explanatory variables are socioeconomic factors at the same level. It became clear that the factors such as the leadership of agricultural cooperatives, the development level of labor market, the investment level for agricultural infrastructure and the strength of social bonds of rural community would significantly influence the farmland share. In this way, the multi-level modeling approach would bring us more appropriate insight on the mechanism of land-use change than the conventional regression approach.(2) Iprepared the other two-level database of Kyoto prefecture (time series data at level 1, rural community at level 2). I could extract the patters of farmland change of 1600 communities in Kyoto Prefecture for 30 years (1970-2000) by applying the multilevel model.(3) On the other hand, I applied Agent-based approach for modeling agricultural land use at community level to develop a prototype model. By the model, we can describe the effects of various land use policies such as rice price, adjustment of rice production, land improvement project and so on. The linkage between the factor analysis by the multilevel model and the simulation model by the multi-agent system is the most promising task to develop "the Regionally Sensitive Global Land-use Model".

(1)在这个研究项目中，我完成了全国范围内的土地利用，自然和社会经济条件的两级数据库。使用该数据库，我应用了单水平（常规）多元回归模型和两水平多元回归模型（水平1：市，水平2：县）。结果表明，地形因素、农田管理条件和城市化因素是决定农田占有率及其变化的核心因素。我进行了县级回归分析，其中准则变量为县级随机项（多水平分析的输出），解释变量为同一水平的社会经济因素。研究结果表明，农业合作社的领导力、劳动力市场的发育程度、农业基础设施的投资水平以及农村社区的社会纽带强度等因素对农地分享有显著影响。因此，多层次模型方法比传统的回归方法更能揭示土地利用变化的机制。(2)另外还建立了京都府的两级数据库（一级为时间序列数据，二级为农村社区数据）。通过应用多水平模型，可以提取出京都府1600个社区30年（1970-2000年）的农田变化模式。(3)另一方面，我应用基于Agent的方法在社区一级的农业土地利用建模开发了一个原型模型。该模型可以描述水稻价格、水稻生产调整、土地改良等土地利用政策的影响，将多层次模型的因子分析与多智能体系统的模拟模型相结合是建立“区域敏感的全球土地利用模型”的最有前途的任务。