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Development of a Regional Growth Model Including Dynamics of Water Resources

开发包括水资源动态的区域增长模型

基本信息

批准号：
13838007
负责人：
HORI Tomoharu
金额：
$ 2.18万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13838007/
关键词：
water Resources system dynamics water demand economical system social system agricultural water use industrial water use municipal water use 水循環水環境地域成長

项目摘要

The purpose of this research is to develop a system dynamics model to express the relation among water resources, population, food production, environmental pollution, and economic activities at a regional scale and to make the influence clear that water availability will give to human activities. To achieve this purpose, the following approaches have been done.First, water users are categorized into agricultural, industrial and municipal sectors. In agricultural sectors, water demand is modeled by the use of depletion depth in paddy fields. In industrial and municipal sectors, water demand is expressed in terms of multiple regression models through the past industrial and water use statistics data in Japan. Next, water consumption sectors are connected to population sectors and regional water flow sectors. Emigration sectors are introduced to explain the movement of products in one region to others. Finally by putting all the sectors into one system dynamics model, the behavior of the water resources systems in Kinki-region in Japan is analyzed under the possible future scenarios.From the viewpoint of interaction in a global scale in terms of water resources, a model exploring water needs of the various continents is also developed using system dynamics. Identification of continents with acute water shortage and development limitations will also be possible with this model. Besides focusing on the effects of water on each continent, the model is characterized by its treatment on the various continents as inter-dependant blocks and movements of information and materials have been considered. Several runs of the world continental water model developed here with several GCM scenario results has allowed us to test the impacts of GHG emissions on water availability and the human society.

本研究的目的是建立一个系统动力学模型，以表达区域尺度上水资源、人口、粮食生产、环境污染和经济活动之间的关系，并阐明水资源的可利用性对人类活动的影响。为实现这一目标，采取了以下办法：首先，将用水者分为农业、工业和市政部门。在农业部门，水需求是通过使用在稻田枯竭深度建模。在工业和市政部门，水需求是通过日本过去的工业和用水统计数据，在多元回归模型表示。其次，将水消费部门与人口部门和区域水流量部门联系起来。引入移民部门是为了解释一个地区的产品向其他地区的流动。最后，通过将各部门纳入一个系统动力学模型，分析了近畿地区水资源系统在未来可能出现的情景下的行为，并从全球水资源相互作用的观点出发，利用系统动力学建立了探讨各大洲水需求的模型。利用这一模式，还可以查明严重缺水和发展受到限制的大陆。除了关注水对各大洲的影响外，该模型的特点是将各大洲视为相互依赖的块体，并考虑了信息和材料的流动。几个运行的世界大陆水模型在这里开发的几个GCM情景的结果，使我们能够测试温室气体排放对水的可用性和人类社会的影响。