Flood Refuge simulation system Considering Inhabitants' Attitude on Flood Disasters

从拯救人类生命的角度来看，避难行动是应对洪水灾害的一项重要措施。这在很大程度上取决于流域居民的生活模式、洪水经验、洪水知识和避难路线。因此，建立一个能够分析不同条件下居民避难行为方式的模型，使避难行为成为减轻洪水灾害的软对策之一是十分必要的。主要研究成果如下：1.根据研究组长设计的微型避难行动模型方案，开发了一个能模拟不同条件下流域居民避难行动的系统。在模型中，居民对洪水形势危险性的感受用新引入的参数“危险识别率”来表示，采用产生式规则和模糊推理规则表达避难行动的决策方法.提出了一种基于伪问卷法的洪水避难行为模型校正方法，并设计了相应的校正算法。在微观洪水避难行动模型中，由于模型具有每户居民的心理决策过程，因此可以在模拟后分析居民为什么决定避难或为什么不避难等避难行动的心理过程，从而可以得到现场问卷调查中常用问题的结果。虚拟问卷是指通过对分布在计算机中的住户对象进行问卷调查，使模拟结果与实地调查结果之间的差异最小化的方法.一个显示系统，显示避难行动和淹没情况，根据模拟运行。

Refuge action is an important countermeasure to the flood disasters especially from the viewpoint of human life saving. It depends largely on the life pattern, experience of floods, knowledge about flood and refuge routes of basin residents. Therefore a model which enables us to analyze the way of inhabitants' refuge actions under various conditions is necessary to make refuge actions one of the soft countermeasure to mitigate flood disasters.In this study, a simulation system of flood refuge actions including metal decision process of inhabitants. The main research results are summarized as follows :1. A system which can simulate the refuge actions of basin residents under various conditions are developed based on a micro refuge action model scheme which has been designed by the head investigator, In the model, the inhabitants' feeling on the danger of flood situation is expressed by the newly introduced parameter 'danger recognition rate', and the way of decision making on refuge actions is expressed by production rules and fuzzy inference ones.2. Pseudo-questionnaire method is developed to calibrate the flood refuge action model and calibration algorithm is designed based on the method. In the micro flood refuge action model, the mental processes about refuge actions, such as why inhabitants decided the refuge or why not, can be analyzed after the simulation because the model possesses the metal decision making processes of each household, and so it is possible to get the results for questions which are usually used in field questionnaire researches. Pseudo-questionnaire is the method to minimize the difference between the simulation results and those got by field investigation doing the questionnaire to household objects distributed in the computer.3. A display system which shows the refuge actions and inundation situation accroding to the simulation run.