Flood Refuge simulation system Considering Inhabitants' Attitude on Flood Disasters

避难行动是应对洪涝灾害的一项重要对策，特别是从拯救人类生命的角度来看。这在很大程度上取决于流域居民的生活方式、洪水经历、洪水知识和避难路线。因此，有必要建立一个能够分析各种条件下居民避难行为方式的模型，使避难行为成为缓解洪涝灾害的软对策之一。本研究建立了一个包含居民决策过程的洪水避难行为模拟系统。主要研究成果总结如下：1。在首席研究员设计的微避难行为模型方案的基础上，开发了一个模拟流域居民在不同条件下避难行为的系统，模型中，居民对洪情危险性的感受用新引入的“危险识别率”参数来表达，避难行为的决策方式用生产规则和模糊推理方法来表达。提出了伪问卷法对避洪行动模型进行标定，并在此基础上设计了标定算法。在微洪水避难行为模型中，由于模型具有每个家庭的金属决策过程，模拟后可以分析居民为什么决定避难或为什么不决定避难等避难行为的心理过程，从而可以得到通常用于现场问卷调查的问题的结果。伪问卷法是为了尽量减少模拟结果与实地调查结果之间的差异，对计算机中分发的家庭物品进行问卷调查。一个根据模拟运行情况显示避难行动和淹没情况的显示系统。

Refuge action is an important countermeasure to the flood disasters especially from the viewpoint of human life saving. It depends largely on the life pattern, experience of floods, knowledge about flood and refuge routes of basin residents. Therefore a model which enables us to analyze the way of inhabitants' refuge actions under various conditions is necessary to make refuge actions one of the soft countermeasure to mitigate flood disasters.In this study, a simulation system of flood refuge actions including metal decision process of inhabitants. The main research results are summarized as follows :1. A system which can simulate the refuge actions of basin residents under various conditions are developed based on a micro refuge action model scheme which has been designed by the head investigator, In the model, the inhabitants' feeling on the danger of flood situation is expressed by the newly introduced parameter 'danger recognition rate', and the way of decision making on refuge actions is expressed by production rules and fuzzy inference ones.2. Pseudo-questionnaire method is developed to calibrate the flood refuge action model and calibration algorithm is designed based on the method. In the micro flood refuge action model, the mental processes about refuge actions, such as why inhabitants decided the refuge or why not, can be analyzed after the simulation because the model possesses the metal decision making processes of each household, and so it is possible to get the results for questions which are usually used in field questionnaire researches. Pseudo-questionnaire is the method to minimize the difference between the simulation results and those got by field investigation doing the questionnaire to household objects distributed in the computer.3. A display system which shows the refuge actions and inundation situation accroding to the simulation run.