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Flood Emergency Work Simulation System based on Local Disaster Preparedness Plan

基于地方备灾预案的洪水应急工作模拟系统

基本信息

批准号：
11558050
负责人：
HORI Tomoharu
金额：
$ 4.22万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
1999
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1999 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The aim of this study is to develop an estimation model of emergency safety systems focusing on the information interchange during a flood disaster. The governmental agencies are modeled as an object which is activated by disaster information and send new information based on its task to other ones. The task of each agency is expressed in a rule format based on provisions of the emergency safety plan. The nature system and the local communities are modeled as an object which have scenarios of disasters. Then the communication network among the public agencies under the flood situation is simulated to analyze the performance of emergency safety systems. Simulation results are summarized in terms of several indices defined to express the flood disaster preparedness : for example, total amount of information and sink ratio. The sink ratio is the index about the amount of information which does not cause any new actions when an agency receives the information.The results of the research can be summarized as follows :1. An inference engine is developed which enables to store each provision in a local disaster preparedness plan into a rule base in computer-compatible rule format and extract suitable rules according to disaster situation.2. An object-oriented agent model is developed. Each agent is a realization of disaster prevention sections in local government on a computer and acts autonomously based on its rule-base according to disaster situation.3. Through emergency work simulations in Kyoto area based on several scenarios, information sink ratio has been introduced to express the characteristics of disaster prevention sections in local governments.

本研究的目的是建立一个以洪水灾害中信息交换为重点的应急安全系统评估模型。政府机构被建模为一个被灾难信息激活并根据其任务向其他机构发送新信息的对象。每个机构的任务是根据紧急安全计划的规定以规则形式表示的。自然系统和当地社区被建模为具有灾害情景的对象。然后对洪水情况下公共机构间的通信网络进行仿真，分析应急安全系统的性能。根据信息总量、汇比等指标，对模拟结果进行了总结。接收比率是指当一个机构接收到信息时，不会引起任何新行动的信息量的指数。研究结果可以总结为：1。开发了一种推理引擎，能够将本地备灾计划中的各项规定以计算机兼容的规则格式存储到规则库中，并根据灾害情况提取出合适的规则。开发了面向对象的智能体模型。每个agent都是地方政府防灾部门在计算机上的实现，根据灾害情况，基于其规则库自主行动。通过对京都地区多个场景的应急工作模拟，引入信息汇比来表达地方政府防灾部门的特点。