Flood Emergency Work Simulation System based on Local Disaster Preparedness Plan

本研究的目的是建立一种以洪灾期间信息交换为中心的应急安全系统评估模型。政府机构被建模为一个被灾害信息激活的对象，并根据其任务向其他机构发送新的信息。每个机构的任务都是根据应急安全计划的规定以规则格式表示的。将自然系统和当地社区建模为一个具有灾害情景的对象。然后对洪水情况下公共机构间的通信网络进行仿真，分析应急安全系统的性能。模拟结果用定义的几个指标来表示洪水灾害的防备，如信息量总量和库容比。研究结果如下：1.开发了一种推理机，能够将本地备灾计划中的每一项准备以计算机兼容的规则格式存储到规则库中，并根据灾情提取合适的规则。提出了一种面向对象的代理模型。每个智能体是地方政府防灾部门在计算机上的一个实现，根据其规则库根据灾情自主行动。通过对京都地区基于多个情景的应急工作模拟，引入信息沉降率来表达地方政府防灾部门的特点。

The aim of this study is to develop an estimation model of emergency safety systems focusing on the information interchange during a flood disaster. The governmental agencies are modeled as an object which is activated by disaster information and send new information based on its task to other ones. The task of each agency is expressed in a rule format based on provisions of the emergency safety plan. The nature system and the local communities are modeled as an object which have scenarios of disasters. Then the communication network among the public agencies under the flood situation is simulated to analyze the performance of emergency safety systems. Simulation results are summarized in terms of several indices defined to express the flood disaster preparedness : for example, total amount of information and sink ratio. The sink ratio is the index about the amount of information which does not cause any new actions when an agency receives the information.The results of the research can be summarized as follows :1. An inference engine is developed which enables to store each provision in a local disaster preparedness plan into a rule base in computer-compatible rule format and extract suitable rules according to disaster situation.2. An object-oriented agent model is developed. Each agent is a realization of disaster prevention sections in local government on a computer and acts autonomously based on its rule-base according to disaster situation.3. Through emergency work simulations in Kyoto area based on several scenarios, information sink ratio has been introduced to express the characteristics of disaster prevention sections in local governments.