Development of integrated scenario simulator for risk-management of flood in a city

本研究旨在开发灾害综合场景模拟器。该模拟器同步了洪水分析、灾害信息传输和避难避难行动三个子模型。模拟系统通过将计算结果存储在GIS中，同时与基于GIS的模拟系统管理输入信息并进行协作，实现了子系统之间的数据传递和计算结果的可视化。在城市设施和土地利用中构建实现情景假设的城市洪水分析系统时，我们收集了基础信息，构建了东海地区暴雨灾害的暴雨分析系统，并研究了成为溃堤因素的管道的发展过程以及所使用的洪水径流分析技术。在实现情景假设的信息传输分析系统的构建中，我们分析了台风逼近过程中居民和管理部门的信息获取和使用，以及居民信息获取和疏散行为的决策机制。此外，还以2004年新泻县暴雨灾害为例，分析了其与居民信息获取、山谷识别和风险认知的关系。在构建与洪水和信息传输同步的居民疏散行为模拟中，主要完成了居民对假设条件下的疏散行为决策的研究，并构建了原型决策模型。本研究在此之前针对研究成果的海啸灾害开发了综合情景模拟器。已积累，并尝试应用于河流洪水。此外，我们的目标是在系统中反映数据格式、计算处理以及居民在灾害中的行为的调查结果的效率改进。较少的

In this research, it aimed at the development of the disaster integrated scenario simulator. This simulator synchronized three submodels those are a flood analysis, a disaster information transmission, and the evacuation shelter action. The simulation system has achieved the delivery of the data between subsystems and the visualization of the calculation result by storing the calculation result in GIS at the same time as managing the input information with the simulation system based on GIS and making it cooperate.When the urban flood analysis system that enables the scenario assumption constructs it in urban facilities and the land use, we collect basic information to construct the heavy rainfall analysis system of the heavy rainfall disaster in Tokai district and examined the development process of the piping that become a factor of banks collapsed and the flood runoff analysis technology that used the radar Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System.In the construction of the … More information transmission analysis system that enabled the scenario assumption, we analyzed resident's and administration's information acquisition and use, and the resident's decision making mechanism of information acquisition and evacuation behavior in the approach process of the typhoon. In addition, we analyzed the relation with the resident's information acquisition, valley recognition and risk cognitive the case of the heavy rainfall disaster in Niigata, 2004.In the construction of resident's evacuation behavior simulation that that synchronized with the flood and the information transmission, the research on their decision making of evacuation behavior needed as the assumption was chiefly accomplished, and the decision making model of the prototype was constructed.In this research, the integrated scenario simulator was developed preceding it for the tsunami disaster that the research results have been accumulated, and application to the river flood was tried. Moreover, we aimed at the reflection of efficiency improvement of the data format, calculation processing, and the result of the survey of the resident's behavior at the disaster in the system. Less