Philosophical Foundations for Probabilistic Inference and Probabilistic Prediction

概率推理和概率预测的哲学基础

• 批准号: DP0343319
• 负责人: Prof Graham Oppy
• 金额: $ 9.05万
• 依托单位: Monash University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2003-01-01 至 2005-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP0343319
• 关键词: Philosophical; Foundations; Probabilistic; Inference; Prediction

This exciting and innovative project aims to lay new foundations for contemporary philosophy of science. We shall use basic Minimum Message Length (MML) principles to vastly improve on current philosophical accounts of scientific inference and scientific prediction. We shall also use the theory to develop new and exciting answers to longstanding problems in philosophy of science concerning induction, projectability, private languages, determinism and intelligence. A theory based on MML principles will demonstrate the clear inadequacies of competing classical approaches, and will completely reshape the way in which philosophers think about Bayesian theories of inference.

这个令人兴奋和创新的项目旨在为当代科学哲学奠定新的基础。我们将使用基本的最小消息长度（MML）原则来极大地改进当前科学推理和科学预测的哲学解释。我们还将利用这一理论，为科学哲学中有关归纳法、可投射性、私人语言、决定论和智力等长期存在的问题提供新的、令人兴奋的答案。基于MML原理的理论将证明与之竞争的经典方法的明显不足，并将完全重塑哲学家思考贝叶斯推理理论的方式。