A Study in the Generating-Expanding Process and the Causes of Financial Institution's Poor Support to their Bad Loans in 1990s' Japan

本研究以20世纪90年代后半期，特别是从1997年底开始的两年左右为研究对象，考察了日本金融市场在（所谓的）困境和混乱中的运作机制和实际数字。这一时期通常被称为“信贷紧缩”或“金融危机”时期，被认为是日本经济全面困境的高潮，原因是金融机构对20世纪80年代“泡沫年代”期间产生和扩大的不良贷款支持不力。现在，主流观点认为，这一时期是政策干预的成功案例，日本正是通过这种干预，开始了从长达10年的银行不良贷款严重问题中复苏的过程。基于这一观点，他们最近向陷入次贷困境的发达国家的央行和政府提出了政策建议。然而，没有人用有说服力的证据证明“紧缩”或“危机”的严重性，也没有人从经验上证实这一时期政策干预的有效性。随便观察一下宏观数据，就会对“信贷紧缩”的严重性产生怀疑，从而对政策的有效性产生怀疑。本研究利用《各行业企业财务报表统计季刊》（Hojin Kigyo Tokei Chosa, Kiho）中关于单个企业融资行为的大量微观数据，实证地证实了不存在应该被称为“信贷紧缩”或“金融危机”的严重情况。没有任何严重疾病，任何政策干预都不可能有效。这一结论表明，日本在“金融危机”时期的政策成功故事是一个神话，这将为日本不良贷款争议的新研究提供动力。该研究的最终报告可从财政部的主页下载：http://www.mof.go.jp/jouhou/soken/toukei.htm

Focusing on the second half of 1990s, about two years in particular beginning in the end of 1997, this study investigates the working mechanism and actual figures of Japan's financial markets in (alleged) troubles and confusion. This period, often called as the time of "Credit Crunch" or "Financial Crisis", is regarded as the climax of Japan's economy wide troubles caused by financial institution's poor support to bad loans generated and expanded during "the Bubble Years" in the 1980s. Now the dominant view remembers this period as a case for successful policy intervention with which Japan began the recovering process from a decade-length serious trouble with bank's bad loans. Upon this view, recently, they make policy recommendations to central banks and governments in developed countries fallen in sub-prime loan troubles. Nobody, however, has shown with persuasive evidence the seriousness of the "Crunch" or "Crisis" and confirmed empirically the effectiveness of the policy intervention during this period. Casual observation of macro data causes doubts on the seriousness of the "Credit Crunch" and therefore the policy effectiveness.Using huge set of micro-data on financing behavior of individual firms, from Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, Quarterly (Hojin Kigyo Tokei Chosa, Kiho), this study empirically confirms that there was no such serious situation that should be called "Credit Crunch" or "Financial Crisis". Without any serious disease, no policy intervention could be effective. This conclusion suggests that the success story of Japans policy during the "Financial Crisis" period is a myth, which would create a momentum for new researches on the Japans bad loans controversy.The Final Report of the study is downloadable from the Ministry of Finance's homepage : http://www.mof.go.jp/jouhou/soken/toukei.htm