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Gender, Aging and the Sustainability of Social Security

性别、老龄化和社会保障的可持续性

基本信息

批准号：
18530129
负责人：
BRAUN Richard Anton
金额：
$ 2.48万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2006
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2006 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-18530129/
关键词：
Saving aging baby-boom Japan medical expenses 社会保障消費税率源泉徴収人口統計重複世代

项目摘要

This grant has been used to support my on going research on aging and government policy. Japan is undergoing the most rapid demographic changes of any advanced economy. My research has documented that the combined effects of lower fertility rates, aging of the baby-boom generation and lower mortality rates on the future course of the national saving rate. We have found that the recent decline in the national saving rate from 15 percent in 1990 to 6 percent in 2000 is not a transient. Our model projections indicate that the national saving rate will average less than 5 percent for the remainder of the century. In other research I have investigated the implications of demographic change for government policy. Interesting we find that the medical expenditures associated with aging in. Japan will continue to be moderate. Containing social security expenditures is a much bigger and complicated challenge. Retaining benefits at their current level for the young can only be achieved if the consumption tax rate is increased to about 16 percent, a level that is common in Europe but very high relative to the current consumption tax rate of 5 percent.There are many remaining questions that I hope to pursue in future research on this same topic. In the models that we have considered to date, the retirement decision is exogenous. We are now working on making that decision endogenous. This will allow us to investigate how recent changes in social security law will affect the retirement decision. We are also interested in modeling joint labor supply decisions of married households and investigating how changes in the income tax and social security laws will affect participation and labor supply of married women.

这笔赠款已用于支持我正在进行的老龄化和政府政策研究。日本正在经历所有发达经济体中最快的人口变化。我的研究记录了较低的生育率、婴儿潮一代的老龄化和较低的死亡率对国民储蓄率未来走势的综合影响。我们发现，近期国民储蓄率从1990年的15%下降到2000年的6%并不是暂时的。我们的模型预测表明，本世纪剩余时间国民储蓄率平均将低于 5%。在其他研究中，我调查了人口变化对政府政策的影响。有趣的是，我们发现日本与老龄化相关的医疗支出将继续保持适度。控制社会保障支出是一个更大、更复杂的挑战。只有将消费税率提高到 16% 左右，才能将年轻人的福利维持在目前的水平，这一水平在欧洲很常见，但相对于目前 5% 的消费税率来说非常高。我希望在未来对同一主题的研究中继续探讨许多遗留问题。在我们迄今为止考虑的模型中，退休决定是外生的。我们现在正在努力使这一决定成为内生的。这将使我们能够调查社会保障法的最新变化将如何影响退休决定。我们还有兴趣对已婚家庭的联合劳动力供应决策进行建模，并调查所得税和社会保障法的变化将如何影响已婚妇女的参与和劳动力供应。