Economic Analysis of Project-based Mechanisms for Prevention of Global Warming

《京都议定书》引入了一种以项目为基础、基准和信用的机制，称为清洁发展机制(CDM)。清洁发展机制下的基线设定需要替代方法和备选办法。我们首先从提供减排诱因的角度研究了这些选择。其次，一家公司采用的清洁发展机制项目可能会鼓励或阻碍后续公司采用清洁发展机制项目。我们探讨了在什么情况下可能会发生哪种情况。第三，如果先前的项目导致修订适用于后续项目的基线，则基线可以起到阻止后续项目进入的障碍的作用。我们表明，这种威慑作用可能会阻碍开发更好的技术来减少排放。

The Kyoto Protocol introduced a project-based, baseline-and-credit mechanism called Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Baseline setting under CDM entails alternative methods and options. We first examined such options from the viewpoint of providing incentive to reduce emissions. Second, a CDM project adopted by one firm may encourage or discourage subsequent firms to adopt CDM projects. We explored which case is likely to happen under what conditions. Third, baseline can function as a barrier to deter subsequent entries if a preceding project causes the revision of the baseline applicable to subsequent projects. We showed that this deterrence effect may discourage the development of better technology to reduce emissions.