Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters

宏观经济预测者的战略偏见和专业背景

• 批准号: 18730129
• 负责人: ASHIYA Masahiro
• 金额: $ 1.96万
• 依托单位: Kobe University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2006 至 2008
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-18730129/
• 关键词: 合理的期待形成仮説; 戦略的行動; 戦略的な予測行動; 所属業種の影響; 合理的期待形成仮設

本研究課題では、「予測情報を顧客獲得に利用している企業は、予測精度を犠牲にしても他企業との差別化を図って、予測的中時の注目度を高めようとする」という仮説を検証し、日本の研究機関の実質GDP予測データにこの仮説が当てはまる事を示した。本研究課題の成果は、Ashiya, M. (2009) "Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters."J. of Forecasting, 28, 120-130.として刊行された。

This research topic is to demonstrate how to improve the accuracy of prediction by differentiating between companies and customers, and how to improve the visibility of prediction in Japan's research institutions. The results of this research project are as follows: Ashiya, M. (2009) "Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters. "J. of Forecasting, 28, 120-130.

项目成果

Are 16-Months-Ahead Forecasts Useful? A Directional Analysis of Japanese GDP Forecasts

未来 16 个月的预测有用吗？

• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: Journal of Forecasting 25(3)
• 作者: Ashiya;M;M. Ashiya;M.Ashiya;M.Ashiya;芦谷政治;M.Ashiya;M.Ashiya;M.Ashiya
• 通讯作者: M.Ashiya

Forecast Accuracy of the Japanese Government:Its Year-Ahead GDP Forecast Is Too Optimistic

日本政府预测准确度：全年GDP预测过于乐观

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: Japan and the World Economy 19(1)
• 作者: Ashiya;M;M. Ashiya;M.Ashiya;M.Ashiya
• 通讯作者: M.Ashiya

Testing the Rationality of Forecast Revisions Made by the IMF and the OECD

检验IMF和OECD预测修正的合理性

• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: Journal of Forecasting 25(1)
• 作者: Ashiya;M;M. Ashiya;M.Ashiya;M.Ashiya;芦谷政治;M.Ashiya;M.Ashiya
• 通讯作者: M.Ashiya

Forecast accuracy and product differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.07.003
• 发表时间: 2006-04
• 期刊: International Journal of Forecasting
• 影响因子: 7.9
• 作者: M. Ashiya

Forecast Accuracy of the Japanese Government : Its Year-Ahead GDP Forecast Is Too Optimistic

日本政府预测准确度：明年GDP预测过于乐观

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: Japan and the World Economy 19(1)
• 作者: Ashiya;M;M. Ashiya;M.Ashiya;M.Ashiya;芦谷政治;M.Ashiya
• 通讯作者: M.Ashiya