Econometric Analysis of the Macroeconomy and Financial Causal Relationships between Japan, the US and China

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In the four-year period of the project, we got the following main results.For a deep investigation of cointegration and causal relationships between nonstationary multiple time series, based on Pro FORTRAN for personal computer, we succeeded in getting an updated version of the FORTRAN program CCTW which was written by the author before. By use of the new developed program CCTW2012, calculation of the long-run and short-run causal measures of one-way effect at time domain and at frequency domain, and also the Wald test of the one-way effect causal measures has become easier. The FORTRAN programCCTW2012 makes it possible to investigating the complex causal relationships in details. We also confirmed that the calculation algorithm for analyzing high frequency financial time series with FORTRAN 95 based on personal computer is possible. For the empirical analysis of the Japanese, the US as well as the Chinese economy, we gathered many economic and financial market data, renewed and also enriched the time series data base which was constructed by the author before. Based on ECM for daily observations in stock markets before and after the 2008 financial crisis, we obtained the stock market dynamic causal characterizations between the United States and Japan, China, Korea, Hong Kong as well as Taiwan.For exchanging research ideas with other scholars all over the world, we take active part in the international academic conferences. In the project period we published 8 research papers and reported our research results at 12 academic conferences. Some of the new empirical results about the asymmetric causal characteristics of the spotlighted stock market composite indices of European and East Asian countries will be reported at the 11thConference of Eurasia Business and Economics Society which will be held in Ekaterinburg, Russia, on September 12-14, 2013