Predictability analysis of explosive cyclones using ensemble assimilation data and an atmospheric general circulation model
Predictability analysis of explosive cyclones using ensemble assimilation data and an atmospheric general circulation model
批准号:
21740348
负责人:
YOSHIDA Akira
金额:
$1.5万
依托单位国家:
日本
项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
财政年份:
2009
资助国家:
日本
项目状态:
已结题
起止时间:
2009 至 2011
中文摘要
利用包含模式和分析误差信息的综合再分析资料,分析了日本周边爆炸性气旋的可预见性及其机制。在日本海上空发展的爆发性气旋比分析预报偏北,而在西北太平洋上空发展的爆发性气旋在分析预报范围大的情况下,其气旋加深程度往往被低估。这种差异是由于气旋发展的主要过程受到大尺度环境的影响。
英文摘要
We analyzed predictability and its mechanism of explosive cyclones around Japan using an ensemble reanalysis data involving model and analysis error information. The explosive cyclones developed over the Sea of Japan tend to be predicted further northward than analysis, while those developed over the northwestern Pacific Ocean tend to be underestimated cyclone deepening with large analysis spread. The difference is due to major process of cyclone development influenced by large-scale environment.
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