Voters'"Disappointment,""Anxiety," and "Hope" and the Possibility of Change in Government Leadership

选民的“失望”、“焦虑”、“希望”与政府领导层更迭的可能性

• 批准号: 21730127
• 负责人: IIDA Takeshi
• 金额: $ 2.5万
• 依托单位: Kobe University (2011)Waseda University (2009-2010)
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2009 至 2011
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21730127/
• 关键词: 政権交代; 総選挙; 投票行動

This project examines how Japanese voters become hopeful for and disappointed in political parties through survey data analysis and social science experiments. It also aims at constructing a theory to explain the mechanism under which change in government leadership happens. The main finings include the following:A simultaneous rise in disappointment and hope lead to higher voter participation and a swing for an opposition party.Voter support for opposition parties and their disappointment in a ruling party are not two sides of the same coin, meaning that a decline in popularity of a ruling party does not lead to a surge in support for an opposition party.

本课题通过调查数据分析和社会科学实验，探讨日本选民对政党的期待和失望。本文的目的是构建一个理论来解释政府领导变革的机制。主要结果如下：失望和希望同时上升，选民参与度上升，在野党的支持率上升。选民对在野党的支持率和对执政党的失望率不是一个硬币的两面，也就是说，执政党的支持率下降并不意味着在野党的支持率上升。

项目成果

2009年、なぜ政権交代だったのか-読売・早稲田の共同調査で読みとく日本政治の転換

读卖新闻和早稻田联合研究揭示2009年政府为何更迭？

• 发表时间: 2009
• 作者: 日野愛郎;おうふう;待烏聡史;日野愛郎;日野愛郎;日野愛郎;日野愛郎;田中愛治・河野勝・日野愛郎・飯田健・読売新聞世論調査部
• 通讯作者: 田中愛治・河野勝・日野愛郎・飯田健・読売新聞世論調査部

Collective Identity Perceived by Others : The Determinants of Japanese Attitudes toward South Korea and North Korea

其他人感知的集体认同:日本对韩国和朝鲜态度的决定因素

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Hiro Katsumata;Takeshi Iida;飯田健;Takeshi Iida and Tetsuya Matsubayashi;飯田健;飯田健・上田路子・松林哲也;飯田健;飯田健;Takeshi Iida;Takeshi Iida;飯田健;Takeshi Iida
• 通讯作者: Takeshi Iida

Under What Condition Can Voters Make Rational Choice?: Voter Preference and Choice in Old-Age Pension Reform in Japan

选民在什么条件下才能做出理性选择：日本养老金改革中选民的偏好与选择

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Tsuyoshi Adachi;Takeshi Iida;Masahisa Endo;Kohei Kamaga
• 通讯作者: Kohei Kamaga

Why Do Voters Become Hopeful for New Leadership?: Voter Risk Attitude and Hope for Opposition Party

为什么选民对新领导充满希望？：选民的风险态度和对反对党的希望

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Tsuyoshi Adachi;Takeshi Iida;Masahisa Endo;Kohei Kamaga;Takeshi Iida
• 通讯作者: Takeshi Iida

Disappointmant, Hope, and Government Change : Emotions and Voting Behavior in the 2009 Japanese General Election.

失望、希望和政府变革：2009 年日本大选中的情绪和投票行为。

• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: Tsuyoshi Adachi;Takeshi Iida;Masahisa Endo;and Kohei Kamaga;Takeshi lida;Takeshi lida;Takeshi lida
• 通讯作者: Takeshi lida