Voters'"Disappointment,""Anxiety," and "Hope" and the Possibility of Change in Government Leadership

该项目通过调查数据分析和社会科学实验，考察了日本选民对政党的希望和失望。本文还旨在构建一个理论来解释政府领导发生变化的机制。主要结论包括：失望和希望同时增加，导致选民参与度增加，并导致在野党的转变。选民对在野党的支持和对执政党的失望并不是同一枚硬币的两面，执政党的支持率下降并不意味着对在野党的支持率会上升。

This project examines how Japanese voters become hopeful for and disappointed in political parties through survey data analysis and social science experiments. It also aims at constructing a theory to explain the mechanism under which change in government leadership happens. The main finings include the following:A simultaneous rise in disappointment and hope lead to higher voter participation and a swing for an opposition party.Voter support for opposition parties and their disappointment in a ruling party are not two sides of the same coin, meaning that a decline in popularity of a ruling party does not lead to a surge in support for an opposition party.