Policy for promoting seismic retrofitting based on Libertarian Paternalism

基于自由家长式作风的抗震加固政策

• 批准号: 22760397
• 负责人: FUJIMI Toshio
• 金额: $ 2.83万
• 依托单位: Kumamoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2010 至 2012
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-22760397/
• 关键词: ナッジ; 行動経済学; 耐震補強; 防災; 減災; リスク; 地震; リバタリアン・パターナリズム; 耐震改修; 曖昧性

This study proposes a new type of warranty policy that appliesthe “nudge” concept developed by Thaler and Sunstein (2008) to encourage homeownersin Japan to implement seismic retrofitting. Homeowner adaptation to natural disastersthrough loss reduction measures is known to be inadequate. To encourage proactive riskmanagement, the “nudge” approach capitalizes on how choice architecture can influencehuman decision-making tendencies. For example, people tend to place more value on warrantyfor consumer goods than on actuarial value. This study proposes a “warranty for seismicretrofitting” as a “nudge” policy that gives homeowners the incentive to adopt lossreduction measures. Under such a contract, the government guarantees all repair costsin case the house gets damaged by an earthquake if the homeowner implements seismicretrofitting. To estimate the degree to which a warranty will increase the perceived valueof seismic retrofitting, we use field survey data from 1,200 homeowners. Our results showthat a warranty increases the perceived value of seismic retrofitting by an average of33%, and an approximate cost benefit analysis indicates that such a warranty can be moreeconomically efficient than an ex-ante subsidy. Furthermore, we address the failure ofthe standard expected utility model to explain homeowners’ decisions based on warrantyevaluation, and explore the significant influence of ambiguity aversion on the efficacyof seismic retrofitting and non-analytical factors such as feelings or trust

本研究提出了一种新型保修政策，该政策应用了 Thaler 和 Sunstein（2008）提出的“助推”概念，以鼓励日本房主实施抗震改造。众所周知，房主通过减少损失措施来适应自然灾害是不够的。为了鼓励主动的风险管理，“助推”方法利用了选择架构如何影响人类决策倾向。例如，人们往往更看重消费品的保修而不是精算价值。这项研究提出了“地震改造保证”作为一项“助推”政策，激励房主采取减少损失的措施。根据这样的合同，如果房主进行抗震加固，政府将承担房屋因地震受损的所有维修费用。为了估计保修将在多大程度上增加抗震改造的感知价值，我们使用了 1,200 名房主的现场调查数据。我们的结果表明，保修将抗震改造的感知价值平均提高了 33%，并且近似成本效益分析表明，此类保修比事前补贴更经济有效。此外，我们解决了标准预期效用模型无法解释房主基于保修评估的决定的问题，并探讨了模糊厌恶对抗震改造效果和非分析因素（例如感觉或信任）的显着影响。

项目成果

Investigation on Factors to Bias Perceived Risk of House Destruction

房屋毁坏风险感知偏差因素调查

• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Proc. of the Disaster Management 2012
• 作者: Fjimi;T.
• 通讯作者: T.

ソーシャルキャピタルが防災意識に及ぼす影響の実証分析

社会资本对防灾意识影响的实证分析

• 发表时间: 2009
• 期刊: 土木計画学研究・講演集 Vol.40(CD-ROM)
• 作者: 柿本竜治;山田文彦;田尻亮司;原田翔太;柿本竜治;松尾和巳;藤見俊夫;山田文彦;柿本竜治;廣瀬健康;藤見俊夫;田中直樹;山本幸;松尾和巳;藤見俊夫
• 通讯作者: 藤見俊夫

治水整備による水害リスクカーブの変遷に関する研究

防洪开发引起的洪水风险曲线变化研究

• 发表时间: 2010
• 期刊: 土木計画学研究・論文集 第27巻
• 作者: 藤見俊夫;柿本竜治;山田文彦;廣瀬健康
• 通讯作者: 廣瀬健康

Promoting Seismic Retrofit Implementation through "Nudge":Using a Warranty as a Driver

通过“助推”推动抗震改造实施：以保修为驱动力

• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: SUN;X.;Miwa;T.;Yamamoto;T. and Morikawa;T.;Toshio Fujimi
• 通讯作者: Toshio Fujimi

Promoting Seismic Retrofit Implementation through “Nudge”: Using a Warranty as a Driver

通过“助推”促进抗震改造实施：以保修为驱动力

• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: SUN;X.;Miwa;T.;Yamamoto;T. and Morikawa;T.;Toshio Fujimi;Toshio Fujimi
• 通讯作者: Toshio Fujimi