Consumption Explosion and the Domestic-Demand-Led Growth in Emerging Asian Large Economies

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The emergence of middle class in rapidly developing Asia such as China and India gives a large impact to the growth mechanism of those economies. The present study first examined the historical case of Japan in the 1960s as a measure for comparison. It clarified the typical change of consumption pattern and the impact to the production structure. Next, the middle class in China was defined according to literature survey and the field surveys by the author in China. Based on this definition, the change of consumption pattern was found out using the data from the household surveys. This information was used to simulate the impact of changing consumption pattern by input-output analysis. The result indicated the possibility of increase of demand for domestic goods, which in turn shows that China's growth pattern will shift from export-led to both export and domestic demand led growth. Similar study was done for India, but the change and the impact is not yet as large as China. The impact to production structure is not giving clear result since the available data is not well reflecting the recent change.