Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (QUEST)

将利用新的遥感观测，通过考虑水的所有三个阶段的时空结构来评估定量降水预报。通过研究从水汽通过云过程的分配到到达地面的降雨量的整个过程链，将发现天气预报模式中云过程处理方面的弱点。应通过改进关于云和降水微观物理的假设(例如，转换率、液滴大小分布、颗粒相和形状)以及次网格可变性来改进预测。现有的观测数据集将用于观测到模型和模型到观测的方法。最重要的是：在配备了先进的地面遥感传感器的观测站上提供对垂直水流星分布的详细观测，极化雷达参数的三维分布和对三维风场的同时观测，以及来自卫星的高空间分辨率水汽场、云参数和与降水有关的微波辐射。使用正向运算符可以充分利用遥感器的信息内容，是迈向未来数据同化方法的重要一步。这项拟议研究的重点是德国气象局洛卡尔-莫代尔的短期预报，然而，创建的工具将可以移植到其他模式。

Quantitative precipitation forecasts will be evaluated by considering the spatial-temporal structure of water in all its three phases using new remote sensing observations. By studying the whole process chain from the water vapour distribution through cloud processes to the amount of precipitation reaching the ground, weaknesses in the treatment of cloud processes in weather forecasting models will be identified. Improvements in predictions should be achieved by improving the assumptions about cloud and precipitation microphysics (e.g. conversion rates, drop size distributions, particle phase and shape) as well as the sub-grid variability. Existing observational datasets will be used in both observation-to-model and model-to-observation approaches. The most important are: detailed observations of the vertical hydrometeor distribution available at observatories equipped with advanced ground-based remote sensors, three dimensional distributions of polarimetric radar parameters and simultaneous observations of the 3D wind field, and high spatial resolution water vapour fields, cloud parameters, and precipitation-relevant microwave radiances from satellite. The use of forward operators allows the full exploitation of the information content of the remote Sensors and is an important step towards future data assimilation methods. The focus of the proposed research is an short-term predictions by the Lokal-Modell of the German Weather Service, however, the created tools will be transferable to other models.