Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (QUEST)

利用多维遥感观测定量评估区域降水预报（QUEST）

• 批准号: 5426611
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Felix Ament
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2003-12-31 至 2010-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/5426611?language=en
• 关键词: Quantitative; evaluation; regional; precipitation; forecasts

Quantitative precipitation forecasts will be evaluated by considering the spatial-temporal structure of water in all its three phases using new remote sensing observations. By studying the whole process chain from the water vapour distribution through cloud processes to the amount of precipitation reaching the ground, weaknesses in the treatment of cloud processes in weather forecasting models will be identified. Improvements in predictions should be achieved by improving the assumptions about cloud and precipitation microphysics (e.g. conversion rates, drop size distributions, particle phase and shape) as well as the sub-grid variability. Existing observational datasets will be used in both observation-to-model and model-to-observation approaches. The most important are: detailed observations of the vertical hydrometeor distribution available at observatories equipped with advanced ground-based remote sensors, three dimensional distributions of polarimetric radar parameters and simultaneous observations of the 3D wind field, and high spatial resolution water vapour fields, cloud parameters, and precipitation-relevant microwave radiances from satellite. The use of forward operators allows the full exploitation of the information content of the remote Sensors and is an important step towards future data assimilation methods. The focus of the proposed research is an short-term predictions by the Lokal-Modell of the German Weather Service, however, the created tools will be transferable to other models.

将利用新的遥感观测，考虑水的所有三个阶段的时空结构，对定量降水预报进行评价。通过研究从云过程中的水汽分布到到达地面的降水量的整个过程链，将确定天气预报模式中云过程处理的弱点。应通过改进关于云和降水微物理学（例如转换率、水滴大小分布、粒子相和形状）以及次网格变异性的假设来改进预测。现有观测数据集将用于观测到模型和模型到观测方法。最重要的是：在配备了先进地面遥感器的观测站可获得的垂直水凝物分布的详细观测、偏振雷达参数的三维分布和三维风场的同步观测、高空间分辨率水汽场、云参数和来自卫星的与降水有关的微波辐射。使用前向算子可以充分利用遥感器的信息内容，是迈向未来数据同化方法的重要一步。拟议研究的重点是德国气象局Lokal-Modell的短期预测，然而，创建的工具将转移到其他模型。