Investigating the influence of climate-induced landscape changes on water and carbon balances in permafrost landscapes

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The proposed research addresses the urgent need to identify and map the implications of climate-induced landscape changes on water and carbon balances in an ecologically and culturally significant lake-rich landscape in northern Canada. Old Crow Flats (OCF), YK is one of many lake-rich permafrost landscapes that are prominent across northern regions. These landscapes are ecological hotspots and provide important resources for northern communities. There is widespread evidence that these areas are highly sensitive to changing climate conditions. In particular, the 14,500-square-kilometre OCF basin has experienced drastically changing water levels, and shrub proliferation during recent decades. Potential impacts on wildlife have raised concerns about local food security. Furthermore, it is likely that warming ground temperatures is accelerating existing thaw slumps along the Old Crow River, as experienced elsewhere in northwestern Canada. However, it is unclear how the water and carbon balance of northern lake-rich landscapes are responding to land cover changes and disturbance. My research program will build on my previous work in OCF and provide training for nine HQP in pursuit of identifying these relations and refine predictions of how this important landscape will respond to future climate change. Integrating leading-edge research approaches to elucidate how water balance and carbon export responds under varying states of landscape change is of particular interest during this next five-year phase of research. Initially, locations and rates of shrub proliferation in OCF will be identified using spaceborne remote sensing, and bolstered by use of unmanned aviation systems (UAS) and dendrochronological techniques. Surface and sub-surface water and carbon balances will be derived using analyses of flow measurements and water chemical and isotopic properties measured at multiple scales (lake-specific and sub-catchment) and landscape features (creeks, lakes, fens, watertracks). River water chemistry measurements upstream and downstream of slump locations will be coupled with UAS-derived digital surface models of slumps to evaluate water quality and carbon export responses. Paleolimnological analyses will provide additional long-term context of how hydroecological conditions have responded to past climate and landscape modifications. Research outcomes will include refined knowledge of how water and carbon balances respond to climate-driven landscape changes and the basis to predict how these important lake-rich environments will respond to future conditions. This knowledge will be valuable for informing land management strategies and enhancing the capability of northern community adaptation as climate change continues.