日本の県別の主な危険因子による疾病負担の研究

该项目旨在确定日本主要风险因素导致的疾病负担的都道府县差异，为老龄化社会背景下的未来政策提供信息。在项目的前三个月，我们重点计算了吸烟的人口归因分数（PAF）。2010年，日本每10，000人中约有13.0人的YLL归因于吸烟。男性中吸烟导致的YLL（每10，000人中有16.8人）多于女性（每10，000人中有8.9人）。这些结果与历史上日本男性吸烟率高于女性相一致。对于男性来说，属于吸烟导致的YLL率最低的五分之一的县包括：福井、山梨、长野、岛根和德岛。另一方面，最高的五分之一包括北海道、青森、茨木、栃木和爱知。对于女性来说，吸烟导致的YLL率最低的五分之一包括茨木、琦玉、神奈川、新泻和富山。归因风险最高的五分位数是在北海道、青森、京都、大坂和和歌山。我们发现，吸烟可归因于风险因素的广泛增加与纬度的男性，而不是女性。这项研究发现，在日本，吸烟可归因于疾病负担的比例显着变化。更强有力的国家级政策可能有助于减少各都道府县之间吸烟负担的差异。未来的研究将把这些发现扩展到其他风险因素和疾病负担的病因特异性估计。

This project aimed to identify prefecture-level variation in the burden of disease attributable to key risk factors in Japan, to inform future policy in the context of an aging society. In the first three months of the project, we focused on calculating the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to smoking.For Japan in 2010, about 13.0 YLLs per 10,000 population were attributable to smoking. There were more smoking-attributable YLLs among men (16.8 per 10,000) than among women (8.9 per 10,000). These results are consistent with historically higher smoking prevalences among Japanese men than women. For men, prefectures belonging to the lowest quintile for smoking-attributable YLL rates included: Fukui, Yamanashi, Nagano, Shimane and Tokushimaa. On the other hand, the highest quintile consisted of Hokkaido, Aomori, Ibaraki, Tochigi, and Aichi. For women, the lowest quintile for smoking-attributable YLL rates included Ibaraki, Saitama, Kanagawa, Niigata and Toyama. The highest quintiles of attributable risk were found in Hokkaido, Aomori, Kyoto, Osaka and Wakayama. We identified a broad increase in smoking-attributable risk factors with latitude in men but not women.This research identified significant variation in the proportion of the burden of disease attributable to smoking in Japan. More robust national level policies may help to reduce variation between prefectures in smoking-attributable burden. Future research will extend these findings to other risk factors and cause-specific estimate of disease burden.