SPP 1167: Quantitative Precipitation Forecast PQP (Praecipitationis Quantitativae Praedictio)

水是生命主要过程的先决条件。大气首先通过降水调节水的可用性。因此，大气的可预测性，特别是降水的可预测性，具有非同寻常的社会、经济和社会意义。近年来，气象预报方法和观测系统的进一步发展不断提高了短期（最多3天）和中期（最多10天）天气预报的质量，例如温度和风力预报。相比之下，降水预报仍然与16年前相同的缺陷有关。定量降水预报的质量很差，在许多应用中很难得到应用。目前的不足之处包括：（a）对水循环各组成部分的建模不完整;（B）初始场存在空白、未分辨结构和误差;（c）将观测与预报模型最佳联系起来的方法不足（将数据同化为模型）;以及（d）在理解和解释确定性天气预报模型方面存在基本问题。因此，优先方案具有以下最高科学目标：

Water is the prerequisite for the major processes of life. The atmosphere regulates the availability of water above all through precipitation. Therefore, predictability of the atmosphere in general and of precipitation in particular is of extraordinary societal, economic and social significance. Further development of meteorological forecasting methods and observation systems has constantly improved the quality of short-range (up to 3 days) and medium-range (up to 10 days) weather forecast, e.g. for temperature and wind, in the past years. In contrast, precipitation forecast still is associated with the same deficiencies than 16 years ago. Quantitative precipitation forecast is of such poor quality that it can hardly be used for many applications. Presently, deficiencies include (a) the incomplete modellings of the components of the water cycle, (b) gaps, non-resolved structures, and errors of the initial fields, (c) inadequate methods of optimally linking observations with forecast models (assimilation of data into models), but also (d) basic problems in the understanding and interpretation of deterministic weather forecast models. Therefore the Priority Programme has the following superordinate scientific objectives: