The impact of tropical - extratropical interactions on downstream predictability (TROP)

热带-温带相互作用对下游可预测性的影响 (TROP)

• 批准号: 60864161
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Sarah C. Jones
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2007-12-31 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/60864161?language=en
• 关键词: impact; tropical; extratropical; interactions; downstream

In this project we investigate the mechanisms by which organised tropical convective systems, and, in particular, tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET), interact with the midlatitude upper-level wave guide. We consider how this interaction influences the dynamics and predictability of the ET system itself, the midlatitude flow, and sub tropical cyclones that may develop downstream. We will use a combined observational, COSMO modelling, and data denial approach applied to the ET cases of the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign. Diagnostic techniques, including PV inversion and object-oriented diagnostics will be applied to investigate the interactions between the convective and synoptic-scale flow. We will investigate the impact of different regimes of tropical convection on midlatitude predictability through analysis of Year of Tropical Convection datasets and TIGGE data, conducting experiments with ensemble prediction systems (EPS), and diagnosing the results with ensemble sensitivity analysis and other techniques. Finally, we will investigate the predictability of the structural changes during ET and of sub-tropical cyclogenesis using the multiscale ensemble. The results of this study will be used to define observational strategies for a future THORPEX field campaign.

在这个项目中，我们研究有组织的热带对流系统，特别是经历温带过渡（ET）的热带气旋与中纬度上层波导相互作用的机制。我们考虑这种相互作用如何影响蒸散系统本身、中纬度气流以及下游可能发展的亚热带气旋的动态和可预测性。我们将结合观测、COSMO 建模和数据否认方法，应用于 THORPEX 太平洋亚洲区域运动的 ET 案例。诊断技术，包括PV反演和面向对象的诊断，将用于研究对流和天气尺度流之间的相互作用。我们将通过分析热带对流年数据集和TIGGE数据，利用集合预测系统（EPS）进行实验，并利用集合敏感性分析和其他技术对结果进行诊断，研究热带对流不同状况对中纬度可预报性的影响。最后，我们将使用多尺度系综研究 ET 期间结构变化和副热带气旋发生的可预测性。这项研究的结果将用于定义未来 THORPEX 实地活动的观察策略。