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Econometric Analysis of Influences to Japanese Forestry and Timber Industry by the Changes of Timber Trade Policy in Export Countries

出口国木材贸易政策变化对日本林业和木材工业影响的计量分析

基本信息

批准号：
09660162
负责人：
MURASHIMA Yoshinao
金额：
$ 2.37万
依托单位：
Niigata University (1999)Kyoto University (1997-1998)
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1997
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1997 至 1999
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Forestry and forest industry in Japan are changing with unsettled framework of international economy and forest policy. The final objective of this study was to quantitatively analyze the effect of international policy influence to Japanese forest sector.United State, Canada, and Indonesia have been the major countries who made influences to Japanese timber market. Rapid increase of raw log and sawntimber imports in 1960's and early 1970's overwhelmed our market, but after that the situation in international forest sector changed. Decrease of old growth forests and growing environmental movement to save the forests were examples of such biggest changes. Forestry practices have gradually shifted from old growth exploitation to sustained yield of second growth. Because of timber frontier going more and more inland, and of environmental regulation becoming stronger, forestry in North America, especially in the Pacific coast region, affected a lot. This made US South, New Zealand, Chile, South Africa, and Portugal become competitive. In such countries, international timber companies are vigorously growing timber in short rotation. Recent increase of Japanese import of timber from Europe is a proof of less competitiveness in North America.It is also obvious that forestry in Southeast Asia and Russia are less competitive to the others in terms of Japanese timber market. Considering the shifting trend from old growth exploitation to sustained yield of second growth, deep dependence on virgin forests in such countries have no bright future in international timber trade. Under such situation, industrialization policy in Indonesia affected much to the wood panel market in the world in 1980's and 1990's.

随着国际经济和森林政策框架的不稳定，日本的林业和森林产业正在发生变化。本研究的最终目的是定量分析国际政策对日本林业部门的影响。美国、加拿大和印度尼西亚是对日本木材市场产生影响的主要国家。 1960年代和1970年代初期原木和锯材进口的快速增长使我们的市场不堪重负，但此后国际林业部门的情况发生了变化。原始森林的减少和拯救森林的环境运动的不断发展就是这种最大变化的例子。林业生产方式逐步从老林开采转向次生林持续丰产。由于木材前沿越来越内陆，环境监管力度加大，北美特别是太平洋沿岸地区的林业受到很大影响。这使得美国南部、新西兰、智利、南非和葡萄牙变得更具竞争力。在这些国家，国际木材公司正在大力种植短轮伐木材。最近日本从欧洲进口木材的增加证明了其在北美的竞争力下降。同样明显的是，就日本木材市场而言，东南亚和俄罗斯的林业与其他国家相比竞争力较差。考虑到从老树开采转向次生持续产量的趋势，这些国家对原始森林的深度依赖在国际木材贸易中没有光明的前景。在这种情况下，印度尼西亚的工业化政策对20世纪80年代和90年代的世界人造板市场产生了很大的影响。