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Econometric Analysis of Influences to Japanese Forestry and Timber Industry by the Changes of Timber Trade Policy in Export Countries

出口国木材贸易政策变化对日本林业和木材工业影响的计量分析

基本信息

批准号：
09660162
负责人：
MURASHIMA Yoshinao
金额：
$ 2.37万
依托单位：
Niigata University (1999)Kyoto University (1997-1998)
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1997
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1997 至 1999
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Forestry and forest industry in Japan are changing with unsettled framework of international economy and forest policy. The final objective of this study was to quantitatively analyze the effect of international policy influence to Japanese forest sector.United State, Canada, and Indonesia have been the major countries who made influences to Japanese timber market. Rapid increase of raw log and sawntimber imports in 1960's and early 1970's overwhelmed our market, but after that the situation in international forest sector changed. Decrease of old growth forests and growing environmental movement to save the forests were examples of such biggest changes. Forestry practices have gradually shifted from old growth exploitation to sustained yield of second growth. Because of timber frontier going more and more inland, and of environmental regulation becoming stronger, forestry in North America, especially in the Pacific coast region, affected a lot. This made US South, New Zealand, Chile, South Africa, and Portugal become competitive. In such countries, international timber companies are vigorously growing timber in short rotation. Recent increase of Japanese import of timber from Europe is a proof of less competitiveness in North America.It is also obvious that forestry in Southeast Asia and Russia are less competitive to the others in terms of Japanese timber market. Considering the shifting trend from old growth exploitation to sustained yield of second growth, deep dependence on virgin forests in such countries have no bright future in international timber trade. Under such situation, industrialization policy in Indonesia affected much to the wood panel market in the world in 1980's and 1990's.

随着国际经济格局和林业政策的变化，日本的林业和林业产业也在发生变化。本研究的最终目的是定量分析国际政策对日本林业的影响。美国、加拿大和印度尼西亚是对日本木材市场产生影响的主要国家。20世纪60年代和70年代初，原木和锯材进口的迅速增长使我国市场不堪重负，但此后国际林业部门的形势发生了变化。古老森林的减少和保护森林的环保运动的兴起就是这种最大变化的例子。林业实践已逐渐从老林开发转向次生林持续生产。由于木材边界越来越向内陆发展，环境管制越来越强，北美特别是太平洋沿岸地区的林业受到很大影响。这使得美国南部、新西兰、智利、南非和葡萄牙变得具有竞争力。在这些国家，国际木材公司正在大力种植短期轮伐期的木材。近年来，日本从欧洲进口的木材增加，证明了日本在北美的竞争力下降。从日本木材市场的角度来看，东南亚和俄罗斯的林业竞争力也明显下降。考虑到从原始林开发向次生林持续生产的转变趋势，这些国家对原始林的严重依赖在国际木材贸易中没有光明的前景。在这种情况下，印尼的工业化政策对20世纪80年代和90年代世界人造板市场产生了重大影响。