Econometric Analysis of Influences to Japanese Forestry and Timber Industry by the Changes of Timber Trade Policy in Export Countries

随着国际经济格局和森林政策的不稳定，日本的林业和森林工业正在发生变化。本研究的最终目的是定量分析国际政策对日本森林部门的影响。美国、加拿大和印度尼西亚是对日本木材市场产生影响的主要国家。20世纪60年代和70年代初，原木和锯材进口的迅速增加淹没了我国市场，但此后国际林业部门的情况发生了变化。原生林的减少和日益增长的保护森林的环保运动就是这些最大变化的例子。林业实践已逐渐从利用旧生长物向二次生长物的持续产量转变。由于木材边界越来越向内陆转移，以及环境法规的加强，北美的林业，特别是太平洋沿岸地区的林业受到了很大的影响。这使得美国南部、新西兰、智利、南非和葡萄牙变得具有竞争力。在这些国家，国际木材公司正在短期内大力种植木材。最近日本从欧洲进口的木材增加，证明其在北美的竞争力下降。同样明显的是，就日本木材市场而言，东南亚和俄罗斯的林业竞争力较弱。考虑到从旧林开发到次生林持续产量的转变趋势，这些国家对原始森林的深度依赖在国际木材贸易中没有光明的前景。在这种情况下，印尼的工业化政策对上世纪八九十年代的世界木板市场产生了很大的影响。

Forestry and forest industry in Japan are changing with unsettled framework of international economy and forest policy. The final objective of this study was to quantitatively analyze the effect of international policy influence to Japanese forest sector.United State, Canada, and Indonesia have been the major countries who made influences to Japanese timber market. Rapid increase of raw log and sawntimber imports in 1960's and early 1970's overwhelmed our market, but after that the situation in international forest sector changed. Decrease of old growth forests and growing environmental movement to save the forests were examples of such biggest changes. Forestry practices have gradually shifted from old growth exploitation to sustained yield of second growth. Because of timber frontier going more and more inland, and of environmental regulation becoming stronger, forestry in North America, especially in the Pacific coast region, affected a lot. This made US South, New Zealand, Chile, South Africa, and Portugal become competitive. In such countries, international timber companies are vigorously growing timber in short rotation. Recent increase of Japanese import of timber from Europe is a proof of less competitiveness in North America.It is also obvious that forestry in Southeast Asia and Russia are less competitive to the others in terms of Japanese timber market. Considering the shifting trend from old growth exploitation to sustained yield of second growth, deep dependence on virgin forests in such countries have no bright future in international timber trade. Under such situation, industrialization policy in Indonesia affected much to the wood panel market in the world in 1980's and 1990's.