Natural hazards and climate change in Dhaka: future trends, social adaptation and informal dynamics (DhakaHazard)

包括达卡在内的世界上许多特大城市经常受到自然灾害的威胁。由于全球气候变化和快速城市化，预计未来几年与洪水和热带气旋有关的风险将增加。在大达卡，贫民窟和非正规住区的蔓延主要发生在湿地、沼泽和其他高风险地区，几乎没有试图限制对环境的损害。极端降水和热带气旋的增加，加上城市人口日益脆弱，预计将对社会和经济系统的适应性和复原力造成相当大的压力。过去，达卡对外部冲击的总体适应能力令人印象深刻。我们的项目将分析这种相对“稳定”背后的因素。我们研究的另一个主要目标是将预测未来气候变化和极端天气的模型与微观层面的非正式社会和经济适应战略分析联系起来。为了实现这些目标，我们的项目采用了不同的密切相关的方法：气象建模和数据分析以及微观层面的社会和经济领域的研究。此外，在第二个资助期内，我们的项目将集中研究如何向有关人士充分传达气候变化情景以及与天气有关的预报和洪水预报。

Many megacities in the world, including Dhaka, are regularly threatened by natural hazards. Risks associated with floods and tropical cyclones in particular are expected to increase in the years to come because of global climate change and rapid urbanization. In Greater Dhaka, the sprawl of slums and informal settlements is primarily taking place in wetlands, swamps and other high-risk areas, with little attempt being made to limit environmental impairments. An increase of precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones, together with a growing vulnerability of the urban population are expected to put considerable stress on the adaptability and resilience of the social and economic system. In the past, Dhaka has shown an impressive overall adaptability to external shocks. Our project will analyze the factors behind this relative ‘stability’. Another major objective of our research is to link models predicting future climate change and weather extremes to analyses of informal social and economic adaptation strategies on a micro-level. To achieve these objectives, our project applies different closely related methodologies: meteorological modeling and data analysis as well as micro-level social and economic field research. Moreover, during the second funding period, our project will focus on the question of how climate change scenarios as well as weather-related and flood forecasts can be adequately communicated to the people concerned.