Global Scenario on Energy and Environment

二氧化碳排放是导致全球变暖的主要因素，启动碳排放交易已成为国际共识(《京都议定书》)。然而，国际社会未能就其在第六次缔约方会议上的实施达成一致，几乎没有同意在计划于2001年6月举行的CO6.5会议上继续讨论这一问题。COMPASS(政策评估综合模型)数据库和模型具有适合分析这种国际方案的结构，具有经济、能源和环境领域之间的明确联系。特别是，经济的多部门分解、基于投入产出框架的动态应用的技术层面的融合等受到国际学术界的赞赏。美国已决定退出《公约》缔约方会议进程；另一方面，欧洲保持着启动该计划的强烈意愿；日本将不能在对实现《京都议定书》目标感到极端困难的情况下拒绝国际协议。日本和中国在能源和环境领域的合作将成为一个关键因素。中国宣布，它打算在未来十年内使经济规模翻一番(《人民日报》2001年3月13日)。对中国来说，应对能源需求的快速增长和克服环境制约将构成重大挑战。在国际贸易计划中，俄罗斯是排污权的唯一卖家。这是由于经济体制转型导致能源消耗下降。未来，随着经济改革的进展，经济复苏，排污权仍然没有出售的空间。

The emissions of carbon dioxide is a major factor leading to global warming, and a consensus has been reached internationally to initiate emissions trading (Kyoto Protocol). However, international community has failed to agree on its implementation at the COP6 and barely agreed to continue the discussion at CO6.5 planned in June 2001. The COMPASS (comprehensive model for policy assessment) database and model has a structure suitable for the analysis of such international scheme, with explicit linkages among economic, energy, and environment spheres. Particularly, multi-sector disaggregation of the economy, incorporation of technological aspects based on dynamic application of input-output framework, among others, are appreciated international academic circle. The United States has decided to withdraw from the COP process ; Europe on the other hand maintains strong will to activate the scheme ; Japan will not be able to turn away from international agreement while feeling extreme difficulty in achieving the Kyoto target. The cooperation between Japan and China in energy and environmental fields will emerge as a key factor. China has declared its intention to double the size of the economy in the coming decade (People's Daily, March 13,2001). For China, coping with rapid increase in energy demand and overcoming environmental constraints will constitute major challenges. Russia is the only seller of emissions rights in international trading scheme. This is attributable to declines in energy consumption due to transition of economic system. In the future, with recovery of the economy owing to the progress of economic reforms, there will remain no room for selling the emissions rights.