Investigating HALocarbon impacts on the global Environment (InHALE)

随着《基加利修正案》于2019年生效，《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》进入了一个重要的新阶段，大多数主要经济体将控制氢氟碳化合物的生产和使用。这一里程碑式的成就将巩固《议定书》对气候业已产生的巨大效益。然而，最近的科学进展已经确定了有可能限制其未来成功的挑战，包括被认为已逐步淘汰的消耗臭氧的卤代烃生产的重新出现、《议定书》未加以控制的消耗臭氧化合物的迅速增长以及卤代烃降解产物可能产生的破坏性影响。本提案处理与《蒙特利尔议定书》有关的卤代烃最紧迫的科学问题，以更好地确定其大气丰度、排放量和环境影响。通过结合大气测量、有针对性的实验室实验和先进的数值模拟，我们将：1)就地点和化合物数量而言，扩大大气测量的覆盖范围，以便更好地了解卤代烃排放的全球分布，并确定和量化以前未知的大气趋势；2)提高我们对生产（议定书控制的数量）、储存在建筑物和产品中的卤代烃“库”与向大气排放之间关系的理解；通过结合工业模型和大气数据，3)确定不受管制的短寿命卤代烃的近期和未来可能的趋势，以及对臭氧层恢复时间尺度的影响；4)探索提议作为氢氟碳化物替代品的卤代烃的复杂大气化学性质，并确定分解产物是否有可能加剧气候变化或导致其他负面环境后果；5)更好地量化卤代烃对气候的影响，完善用于比较国际协定和设计可能的缓解战略中卤代烃影响的与气候和臭氧消耗有关的指标。这项工作将由卤代烃研究领域的领导人组成的一个财团进行，他们在为《蒙特利尔议定书》各机构和政府间气候变化专门委员会作出贡献方面有着广泛的记录，这将确保将取得的新发展产生持久的影响。

With the Kigali Amendment coming into force in 2019, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer has entered a major new phase in which the production and use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) will be controlled in most major economies. This landmark achievement will cement the Protocol's already-substantial benefits to climate. However, recent scientific advances have identified challenges that threaten to limit its future success, including the re-emergence of production of ozone-depleting halocarbons thought to be phased-out, rapid growth of ozone-depleting compounds not controlled under the Protocol, and the potential for damaging impacts of halocarbon degradation products. This proposal tackles the most urgent scientific issues relating to halocarbons relevant to the Montreal Protocol to better determine their atmospheric abundances, emissions, and environmental impacts. By combining atmospheric measurements, targeted laboratory experiments and advanced numerical modelling we will: 1) expand atmospheric measurement coverage, in terms of number of locations and number of compounds, with the aim of better understanding the global distribution of halocarbon emissions and identifying and quantifying previously unknown atmospheric trends, 2) improve our understanding of the relationship between production (the quantity controlled under the Protocol), "banks" of halocarbons stored in buildings and products, and emissions to the atmosphere, by combining industry models and atmospheric data, 3) determine recent and likely future trends of unregulated, short-lived halocarbons, and implications for the timescale of recovery of the ozone layer, 4) explore the complex atmospheric chemistry of halocarbons that are proposed as replacements for HFCs, and determine whether breakdown products have the potential to contribute to climate change or lead to other negative environmental consequences, 5) better quantify the influence on climate of halocarbons and refine the climate- and ozone-depletion-related metrics used to compare the effects of halocarbons in international agreements and in the design of possible mitigation strategies. This work will be carried out by a consortium of leaders in the field of halocarbon research, who have an extensive track record of contributing to Montreal Protocol bodies and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which will ensure lasting impact of the new developments that will be made.