Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature.

自然未来：绘制人类和自然繁荣的道路。

• 批准号: DP210103460
• 负责人: Prof Brendan Wintle
• 金额: $ 54.24万
• 依托单位: The University of Melbourne
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2021-11-01 至 2025-10-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP210103460
• 关键词: Nature; futures; mapping; pathways; prosperity

Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelling framework and high-performance computing we will integrate economic, land use and biodiversity models to evaluate: (i) policies and incentives for increasing national vegetation cover for carbon sequestration and habitat, and (ii) global risks to nature posed by land use change under future geopolitical scenarios.

人口增长、消费和贸易是土地利用变化和气候变化的直接社会经济驱动因素，这决定了物种可以在哪里生存。联合国可持续发展目标和国家政策承认人类对自然的依赖以及社会经济驱动因素对自然的影响。然而，对自然影响的分析很少明确纳入社会经济驱动因素。利用新颖的建模框架和高性能计算，我们将整合经济、土地利用和生物多样性模型来评估：（i）增加国家植被覆盖以固碳和栖息地的政策和激励措施，以及（ii）未来地缘政治情景下土地利用变化对自然造成的全球风险。