Robust prediction and decision strategies for managing extinction risks under climate change

管理气候变化下灭绝风险的稳健预测和决策策略

• 批准号: LP0989537
• 负责人: Prof Brendan Wintle
• 金额: $ 44.63万
• 依托单位: The University of Melbourne
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Linkage Projects
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2009-04-30 至 2013-07-03
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/LP0989537
• 关键词: Robust; prediction; decision; strategies; managing

Climate change is a principal threat to biodiversity and ecosystem health. The loss of ecosystem services from loss of species and ecosystem change may have serious social and economic repercussions. Unreliable predictions of climate change impacts and inefficient adaptation decisions result in wasted public resources and unnecessary loss of natural assets. In addition to direct benefits of efficient adaptation strategies for case-study ecosystems, techniques arising from this research will improve the way we respond to uncertain, but potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. Bringing state-of-the-art modelling and formal decision methods to climate change adaptation is a central aim of this research.

气候变化是生物多样性和生态系统健康的主要威胁。物种丧失和生态系统变化造成的生态系统服务丧失可能会产生严重的社会和经济影响。对气候变化影响的不可靠预测和低效的适应性决策导致公共资源的浪费和自然资产的不必要损失。除了案例研究生态系统的有效适应战略的直接好处，从这项研究中产生的技术将改善我们应对气候变化的不确定性，但潜在的灾难性后果的方式。为气候变化适应带来最先进的建模和正式决策方法是这项研究的核心目标。