SUPPLEMENT - Systems Analysis of Social Pathways of Epidemics to Reduce Health Disparities

总结 这一应用是为了应对迫切需要了解流行病学和经济 SARS-CoV-2对美国的影响由于导致此次疫情的因素多样复杂， 了解流行病学和经济影响需要一个详细的个人模型， 社区级别的活动和流动性，对于这些活动和流动性，必须有一个高分辨率的代理 基于模型（ABM），而不是集合种群模型。这项研究将建立一个详细的，年龄- 分层艾德，SARS-CoV-2的ABM，考虑了人口统计学的异质性， 个体之间的社会互动。将整合大量新颖的数据源 来校准模型并推断参数。由于无法观察到的参数， 无症状率，不断变化的行为和对社交距离的依从性， 这种反弹道导弹校准、模拟和分析是非常具有挑战性的， 性能计算资源。 校准模型将用于模拟不同类型的反事实场景， 将包括不同类型的社会距离策略（学校关闭，家庭隔离，四分之一， 有症状的和确诊的病例，宽松的休假政策，低成本的疫苗， 抗病毒药对社交距离的依从性和持续时间、传染性、 流行病的严重程度，和ecacies将执行。新的干预措施，如“脉冲”的 将模拟单/双日关闭或交替星期关闭的经济模式。劳动力 由于疾病、死亡和预防性缺勤造成的中断将被用来衡量工业生产率， 尝试水平的不可操作性及其对其他行业和美国国民生产总值的级联效应 产品各种流行病和经济结果指标将在不同情景下进行比较， 将衡量和解释成果之间的取舍。疫情成果将被衡量 在发病率、死亡率、达到高峰的时间和感染高峰方面， 根据疾病成本和社交距离指令造成的预防成本来衡量。 将根据死亡率、疾病成本和总体成本对这些情景进行多重排名。 宏观经济影响。

Summary This application is in response to the urgent need to understand the epidemiological and economic impact of SARS-CoV-2 in the US. Due to the diverse and complex factors driving this outbreak, understanding the epidemiological and economic impact requires a detailed model of individual and community level activities and mobility, for which it is essential to have a high resolution agent based model (ABM), rather than metapopulation models. This research will build a detailed, age- strati ed, ABM of SARS-CoV-2 which takes into account the heterogeneity in demographics and social interactions among individuals. A large number of novel data sources will be integrated to calibrate the model and to infer the parameters. Due to unobservable parameters such as the asymptomatic rate, and constantly changing behaviors and compliance to social distancing, the calibration, simulation and analysis of such an ABM is very challenging, and require high performance computing resources. The calibrated model will be used to simulate di erent kinds of counterfactual scenarios that would include di erent types of social distancing strategies { school closure, home-isolation, quar- antine of symptomatic and diagnosed cases, liberal leave policy, and low ecacy vaccines and antivirals. Sensitivity analysis on compliance and duration of social distancing, transmissibility, epidemic severity, and ecacies will be performed. Novel interventions such as \pulsing" of the economy i.e. odd/even day closure or alternative week closure will be simulated. The workforce disruptions due to illness, deaths and prophylactic absenteeism will be used to measure indus- try level inoperability and its cascading e ect on other industries and on the US Gross National Product. Various epidemic and economic outcome metrics will be compared across scenarios and trade-o s between outcomes will be measured and explained. Epidemic outcomes will be measured in terms of morbidity, mortality, time to peak and peak infections whereas economic outcomes will be measured in terms of cost of illness, and cost of prevention due to social distancing directives. Multiple rankings of the scenarios will be provided based on mortality, cost of illness and overall macroeconomic impact.