EpiModel 2.0: Integrated Network Models for HIV/STI Prevention Science

EpiModel 2.0：HIV/STI 预防科学的综合网络模型

• 批准号: 10179311
• 负责人: Samuel Jenness
• 金额: $ 72.32万
• 依托单位: EMORY UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-07-12 至 2023-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10179311
• 关键词: AIDS prevention; Address; Antibiotics; Antimicrobial Resistance; Applied Research; Bayesian Modeling; Behavioral; Biological; Blood Circulation; Calibration; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.); Chlamydia; Clinical Data; Clinical Research; Clinical Trials; Complex; Computer software; Cost Effectiveness Analysis; Country; Data; Decision Making; Development; Diagnostic; Discipline; Disease; Disease model; Documentation; Drug resistance; Economics; Effectiveness; Epidemic; Epidemiology; Ethnic Origin; Funding; Geography; Goals; Gonorrhea; HIV; Health; Health Policy; Heterosexuals; Human Herpesvirus 2; Incidence; Individual; Infection; Infrastructure; Intervention; Learning; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Nature; Network-based; Outcome; Output; Performance; Persons; Policies; Population; Prevention; Prophylactic treatment; Public Health; Public Health Practice; Race; Reproducibility; Research; Research Design; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Resource Allocation; Resources; Risk; Risk Behaviors; STI prevention; Science; Sexually Transmitted Diseases; Simplexvirus; Software Tools; Southeastern United States; Statistical Data Interpretation; Statistical Methods; Stream; Structure; Syphilis; System; Technology; Testing; Training; Translating; Uncertainty; United States; United States National Institutes of Health; Vaccination; Validation; Viral; Work; base; biobehavior; computer infrastructure; computerized tools; cost; cost effective; data streams; demographics; design; disease transmission; economic cost; economic evaluation; economic outcome; flexibility; health economics; high risk; high standard; host-pathogen coevolution; implementation intervention; implementation science; improved; infectious disease model; innovation; mathematical methods; mathematical model; meetings; men who have sex with men; multiple data sources; network models; next generation; novel; open source; pre-exposure prophylaxis; prevent; prevention service; preventive intervention; scale up; sexual HIV transmission; simulation; social metrics; software development; tool; training opportunity; transmission process; trend; vaccination strategy

ABSTRACT EpiModel 2.0 is an interdisciplinary project to develop the statistical methods and software tools for the network-based mathematical modeling of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals in the United States. As a MIDAS project, our goal is to build and apply a comprehensive computational epidemiology platform for investigating critical issues in HIV/STI prevention science now and over the next decade. This work will build on nearly two decades NIH and CDC funded research that generated modeling tools now being used to support the development of HIV policy by the CDC and local health departments. The major substantive problem that this project addresses is the isolated nature of many mathematical models with respect to modeling diseases or populations independently, limited forms of connection to realistic behavioral or clinical data for parameterization, and with disjointed connections between the epidemic simulation and economic analyses of interventions. EpiModel 2.0 will achieve major advances in our robust modeling infrastructure to achieve integration across all these domains in a comprehensive open-source software platform that may be used by our research group and many others to address the fast-evolving questions of HIV/STI prevention science. Under the framework of integrated models for HIV/STI prevention science, our three specific aims are as follows. 1) Integrated Networks: We will extend EpiModel to accommodate new data forms of bio-behavioral data, including innovative sociometric network data platforms, to allow for modeling MSM and heterosexual networks with greater detail relevant to intervention targeting and scale-up; 2) Integrated Epidemiology: We will design new EpiModel modules to handle the co-circulation of HIV and related bacterial and viral STIs, including gonorrhea, chlamydia, syphilis, and herpes simplex virus, including within-host pathogen evolution to address issues of drug resistance; 3) Integrated Economics: We will develop a new cost-effectiveness analysis software that works seamlessly with EpiModel, specializing in economic analyses of prevention interventions under conditions of uncertainty in defining costs, health utilities, and information valuations. Our major infrastructural components include: 1) comprehensive methods for model calibration and validation using a flexible Bayesian framework; 2) rigorous, open-source software development, testing, and dissemination; and 3) ongoing software and methods documentation and in-person training resources for both epidemiological researchers and public health policymakers. The completion of EpiModel 2.0 will represent the advancement of our robust epidemic modeling software platform for new user bases to investigate complex modeling questions and to make data-driven public health HIV/STI prevention policy.

摘要 EpiModel 2.0是一个跨学科的项目，旨在开发统计方法和软件工具 基于网络的男性中艾滋病毒和其他性传播感染(STI)的数学建模 在美国与男性(MSM)和异性恋者发生性关系。作为一个Midas项目，我们的目标是建立和 应用全面的计算流行病学平台调查艾滋病毒/性传播感染的关键问题 现在和未来十年的预防科学。这项工作将建立在NIH和CDC近20年的基础上 资助的研究产生了建模工具，目前正被用于支持艾滋病毒政策的制定 疾控中心和当地卫生部门。这个项目解决的主要实质性问题是 许多数学模型关于独立地对疾病或人口建模的孤立性质， 与实际行为或临床数据的连接形式有限，用于参数化且不连续 疫情模拟与干预经济分析之间的联系。EpiModel 2.0将 在我们强大的建模基础设施方面取得重大进展，以实现所有这些领域的集成 在一个全面的开源软件平台中，我们的研究小组和其他许多人可能会使用该平台 以解决艾滋病毒/性传播感染预防科学中快速发展的问题。在一体化的框架下 关于艾滋病毒/性传播感染预防科学的模式，我们的三个具体目标如下。1)集成网络：我们将 扩展EpiModel以适应生物行为数据的新数据形式，包括创新的社会测量 网络数据平台，以允许对MSM和异性网络进行建模，更详细地涉及 干预针对性和扩大；2)综合流行病学：我们将设计新的EpiModel模块来 处理艾滋病毒和相关细菌和病毒性传播疾病的共同传播，包括淋病、衣原体、梅毒、 和单纯疱疹病毒，包括宿主内病原体的进化，以解决耐药性问题；3) 综合经济学：我们将开发一款新的成本效益分析软件，与 EpiModel，专门研究#年不确定条件下预防干预的经济分析 定义成本、医疗公用事业和信息估值。我们的主要基础设施组件包括：1) 使用灵活的贝叶斯框架进行模型校准和验证的综合方法；2)严格、 开放源码软件开发、测试和传播；以及3)持续的软件和方法 流行病学研究人员和公共卫生人员的文件和面对面培训资源 政策制定者。EpiModel 2.0的完成将代表着我们稳健的流行病建模的进步 面向新用户群的软件平台，用于研究复杂的建模问题并进行数据驱动 公共卫生艾滋病毒/性传播感染预防政策。

项目成果

Evaluating a neonatal intensive care unit MRSA surveillance programme using agent-based network modelling.

使用基于代理的网络建模评估新生儿重症监护病房 MRSA 监测计划。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhin.2018.05.002
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: The Journal of hospital infection
• 作者: Goldstein,ND;Jenness,SM;Tuttle,D;Power,M;Paul,DA;Eppes,SC
• 通讯作者: Eppes,SC

A decision analytics model to optimize investment in interventions targeting the HIV preexposure prophylaxis cascade of care.

• DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000002909
• 发表时间: 2021-07-15
• 期刊: AIDS (London, England)
• 作者: Jenness SM;Knowlton G;Smith DK;Marcus JL;Anderson EJ;Siegler AJ;Jones J;Sullivan PS;Enns E
• 通讯作者: Enns E

The Role of HIV Partner Services in the Modern Biomedical HIV Prevention Era: A Network Modeling Study.

• DOI: 10.1097/olq.0000000000001711
• 发表时间: 2022-12-01
• 期刊: Sexually transmitted diseases
• 影响因子: 3.1

Modeling an integrated HIV prevention and care continuum to achieve the Ending the HIV Epidemic goals.

• DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000002681
• 发表时间: 2020-11-15
• 期刊: AIDS (London, England)
• 作者: Jenness SM;Johnson JA;Hoover KW;Smith DK;Delaney KP
• 通讯作者: Delaney KP

Assessment of Bias in Estimates of Sexual Network Degree using Prospective Cohort Data.

使用前瞻性队列数据评估性网络程度估计的偏差。

• DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001151
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
• 作者: Uong,Stephen;Rosenberg,EliS;Goodreau,StevenM;Luisi,Nicole;Sullivan,Patrick;Jenness,SamuelM
• 通讯作者: Jenness,SamuelM