EpiModel 2.0: Integrated Network Models for HIV/STI Prevention Science

摘要 EpiModel 2.0是一个跨学科的项目，旨在开发统计方法和软件工具， 艾滋病毒和其他性传播感染（STIs）在男性中的基于网络的数学建模， 在美国，与男性发生性关系（MSM）和异性恋。作为一个MIDAS项目，我们的目标是建立和 应用全面的计算流行病学平台，调查艾滋病毒/性传播感染的关键问题 预防科学现在和未来十年。这项工作将建立在近二十年的NIH和CDC 资助的研究产生了建模工具，现在被用来支持艾滋病毒政策的发展， 疾控中心和当地卫生部门本项目要解决的主要实质性问题是 许多数学模型关于独立地建模疾病或群体的孤立性质， 与用于参数化的现实行为或临床数据的连接形式有限， 流行病模拟与干预措施的经济分析之间的联系。EpiModel 2.0将 在我们强大的建模基础设施方面取得重大进展，以实现所有这些领域的集成 在一个全面的开源软件平台上，我们的研究小组和许多其他人可能会使用它， 解决艾滋病毒/性病预防科学快速发展的问题。在综合框架下， 作为艾滋病毒/性传播感染预防科学的模型，我们的三个具体目标如下。1)综合网络：我们将 扩展EpiModel，以适应生物行为数据的新数据形式，包括创新的社会计量学 网络数据平台，以允许对MSM和异性恋网络进行建模， 2）综合流行病学：我们将设计新的EpiModel模块， 处理艾滋病毒和相关细菌和病毒性性传播感染的共同传播，包括淋病、衣原体、梅毒， 和单纯疱疹病毒，包括宿主内病原体进化，以解决耐药性问题; 3） 综合经济学：我们将开发一种新的成本效益分析软件， EpiModel，专门从事在不确定条件下对预防干预措施进行经济分析， 定义成本、健康效用和信息估值。我们的主要基建项目包括： 使用灵活的贝叶斯框架进行模型校准和验证的综合方法; 2）严格， 开源软件的开发、测试和传播; 3）持续的软件和方法 为流行病学研究人员和公共卫生提供文献和现场培训资源 政策制定者。EpiModel2.0的完成将代表我们强大的流行病建模的进步 软件平台为新用户群调查复杂的建模问题，并使数据驱动 公共卫生艾滋病毒/性传播感染预防政策。

ABSTRACT EpiModel 2.0 is an interdisciplinary project to develop the statistical methods and software tools for the network-based mathematical modeling of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals in the United States. As a MIDAS project, our goal is to build and apply a comprehensive computational epidemiology platform for investigating critical issues in HIV/STI prevention science now and over the next decade. This work will build on nearly two decades NIH and CDC funded research that generated modeling tools now being used to support the development of HIV policy by the CDC and local health departments. The major substantive problem that this project addresses is the isolated nature of many mathematical models with respect to modeling diseases or populations independently, limited forms of connection to realistic behavioral or clinical data for parameterization, and with disjointed connections between the epidemic simulation and economic analyses of interventions. EpiModel 2.0 will achieve major advances in our robust modeling infrastructure to achieve integration across all these domains in a comprehensive open-source software platform that may be used by our research group and many others to address the fast-evolving questions of HIV/STI prevention science. Under the framework of integrated models for HIV/STI prevention science, our three specific aims are as follows. 1) Integrated Networks: We will extend EpiModel to accommodate new data forms of bio-behavioral data, including innovative sociometric network data platforms, to allow for modeling MSM and heterosexual networks with greater detail relevant to intervention targeting and scale-up; 2) Integrated Epidemiology: We will design new EpiModel modules to handle the co-circulation of HIV and related bacterial and viral STIs, including gonorrhea, chlamydia, syphilis, and herpes simplex virus, including within-host pathogen evolution to address issues of drug resistance; 3) Integrated Economics: We will develop a new cost-effectiveness analysis software that works seamlessly with EpiModel, specializing in economic analyses of prevention interventions under conditions of uncertainty in defining costs, health utilities, and information valuations. Our major infrastructural components include: 1) comprehensive methods for model calibration and validation using a flexible Bayesian framework; 2) rigorous, open-source software development, testing, and dissemination; and 3) ongoing software and methods documentation and in-person training resources for both epidemiological researchers and public health policymakers. The completion of EpiModel 2.0 will represent the advancement of our robust epidemic modeling software platform for new user bases to investigate complex modeling questions and to make data-driven public health HIV/STI prevention policy.