Decision-making framework and processes for holistic evaluation of environmental and climate policies (DECIPHER)

环境和气候政策整体评估的决策框架和流程（DECIPHER）

• 批准号: 10038032
• 金额: $ 20.45万
• 依托单位: CAMBRIDGE ECONOMETRICS LIMITED
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: EU-Funded
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10038032
• 关键词: Decision; making; framework; processes; holistic

The dual climate change and biodiversity crises put an urgency for implementing inclusive, just, and effective policies, while their inextricable nature calls for integrated assessment approaches that capture synergies and trade-offs. Mainstream economic methods currently used in the appraisal of environmental policies fail to capture the complexity of the climate-biodiversity-economy nexus. Even though uncertainty, disruption, and irreversibility are inherent to environmental challenges, these are overlooked when designing and evaluating the performance of policies. Policy effectiveness and resilience against other impact areas, such as quality of life, financial stability, political feasibility, innovation is not included in policy appraisal. Rather, policy evaluation is informed by a narrow set of metrics, falling short of encompassing broader considerations of sustainability and well-being. DECIPHER employs a systems and multidisciplinary approach using a diverse set of models, methods, and processes to significantly improve decision-making on climate change and biodiversity and enhance policy resilience and feasibility. Moving beyond state-of-the-art, we will establish a holistic and operational decision-making framework that integrates advanced economic and biophysical models, empirical methods and stakeholder participation tools. The novel framework incorporates environmental damages in the economic decisions of agents and introduces a risk-opportunity approach for decision making. To offer critical insights on system dynamics and risks, the models developed will be equipped with innovative features including improved representations of agent behavior, technology innovation, financial risk valuation and the capacity to assess extreme events and critical tipping points. The new decision-making framework will be the end-result of an iterative co-creation process with stakeholders and applied under real-world conditions in the assessment of flagship EU policies.

气候变化和生物多样性双重危机迫切需要实施包容、公正和有效的政策，而其不可分割的性质要求采取综合评估方法，以实现协同增效和权衡。目前用于评估环境政策的主流经济方法未能捕捉到气候-生物多样性-经济关系的复杂性。尽管不确定性、破坏性和不可逆转性是环境挑战所固有的，但在设计和评估政策绩效时却忽视了这些因素。政策有效性和对其他影响领域的抵御能力，如生活质量、金融稳定性、政治可行性、创新，不包括在政策评估中。相反，政策评价所依据的是一套狭窄的衡量标准，没有包括对可持续性和福祉的更广泛考虑。DECIPHER采用系统和多学科的方法，使用一套不同的模型，方法和流程，以显着改善有关气候变化和生物多样性的决策，并提高政策的弹性和可行性。我们将超越最先进的水平，建立一个综合的、可操作的决策框架，将先进的经济和生物物理模型、经验方法和利益攸关方参与工具结合起来。新的框架将环境损害的经济决策的代理商，并介绍了一个风险-机会的决策方法。为了提供对系统动态和风险的关键见解，开发的模型将配备创新功能，包括改进代理行为的表示，技术创新，金融风险评估以及评估极端事件和关键临界点的能力。新的决策框架将是与利益相关者迭代共同创造过程的最终结果，并在现实条件下应用于评估欧盟旗舰政策。