1/2 Predicting Adult Outcomes in Bipolar Youth (PROBY)

1/2 预测双相情感障碍青少年的成年结局 (PROBY)

• 批准号: 10326340
• 负责人: BORIS BIRMAHER
• 金额: $ 47.55万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-01-10 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10326340
• 关键词: 3 year old; 7 year old; Address; Adolescence; Adult; Age; Anxiety Disorders; Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; Bipolar Disorder; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cardiovascular system; Categories; Caucasians; Childhood; Clinical; Clinical assessments; Counseling; Data; Development; Dimensions; Discrimination; Disruptive Behavior Disorder; Early Intervention; Enrollment; Event; Exposure to; Family; Feeling suicidal; Female; Foundations; Future; Genetic; Goals; Heart Diseases; Impairment; Individual; Life; Literature; Malignant Neoplasms; Manic; Mathematics; Medical; Mental Depression; Mental disorders; Modeling; Moods; Multicenter Studies; National Institute of Mental Health; Onset of illness; Outcome; Patients; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Phenotype; Population; Positioning Attribute; Predictive Factor; Prevention; Prognosis; Prognostic Factor; Provider; Psychopathology; Reporting; Research; Risk; Risk Estimate; Risk Factors; Sample Size; Sampling; Schizophrenia; Site; Specific qualifier value; Specificity; Substance Use Disorder; Substance abuse problem; Suicide; Symptoms; Time; To specify; Universities; Work; Youth; base; biological research; cardiometabolism; childhood bipolar disorder; clinical care; clinical practice; clinical risk; clinically relevant; cognitive control; cognitive function; cohort; comorbidity; depressive symptoms; dosage; early onset; emerging adult; flexibility; follow-up; human old age (65+); individualized medicine; inflammatory marker; minimal risk; mood symptom; neuroimaging; novel; outcome prediction; personalized management; personalized predictions; prospective; protective factors; psychosocial; recruit; sex; suicidal behavior; suicidal risk; tool

Project Summary/Abstract The negative consequences of pediatric bipolar disorder (BP) are well documented, but the course, outcome, and prognostic factors of BP as youth transit into adulthood remain unknown. To answer these questions, the Predicting Adult Outcomes in BP Youth (PROBY), a multisite study (University of Pittsburgh, PI: B.Birmaher; Brown University, PIs: M.Keller/S.Yen; UCLA, PI: M.Strober), proposes: 1) to extend the prospective follow-up of the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) cohort into adulthood, and 2) to use COBY data to build risk calculators to predict short-(2 years), intermediate-(5 years), and long-term (10 years) personalized mood course/outcome that capture transitions from adolescence through adulthood. We will study five key domains relevant for BP: 1) course of mood and non-mood disorders; 2) psychosocial functioning; 3) suicidality; 4) SUD; and 5) cognitive functioning. Risk calculation is an analytic approach that instead of group prediction, yields individualized estimates of risk for a specified event in a given patient, based on the presence of multiple risk factors. The risk calculators proposed in PROBY will have a true population impact by predicting BP outcomes, similar to those used in cardiovascular disease and cancer, but rarely applied in psychiatric disorders. The risk calculators will include well-established variables, in order to allow replication and clinical utility. Also, these variables are easily ascertained in clinical settings and are part of standard practice and thus, will be widely disseminable, and hold promise for utility in daily clinical practice. For example, results may be used to: counsel patients/families about long-term prognosis; individualize treatment by identifying patients likely to require prolonged treatments and those for whom medications may be reduced with minimal risk; and inform early intervention/prevention and clinical/biological research. To pursue the proposed study, 343 COBY subjects (BP-I=72.3%, BP-II=14.6%, BP-NOS=13.1%, mean age 26.3 (18.7–33.7), 47% female, 82% Caucasian, and on average, middle class), will have 2 additional clinical assessments over the five years of study. These subjects represent 77% of the original sample (n=446) enrolled between 2000 and 2006 at the three study sites. PROBY will continue to prospectively collect data on categorical and dimensional psychopathology, protective factors, psychosocial functioning (e.g., relationships, work, academics), cognitive functioning, inflammatory markers, cardiometabolic conditions, exposure to stressful/traumatic life events, and treatment (e.g., medication dosages, barriers). With 5 additional years of prospective observation, the mean age of the sample will be 31.3 years old (23.7–38.7). Thus, PROBY will be the first study with adequate sample size to answer questions about what happens to BP youth when they grow up. Furthermore, PROBY will be the first study to build risk calculators to predict outcome in key domains relevant for BP and validate these results using an independent adult BP sample (n=427) from the Collaborative Depression Study (CDS; R01 MH025416). These risk calculators have the potential to widely transform clinical care of BP.

项目总结/文摘

项目成果

Parsing cyclothymic disorder and other specified bipolar spectrum disorders in youth.

解析青少年的循环性障碍和其他特定的双相谱系障碍。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2018.06.023
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Journal of affective disorders
• 影响因子: 6.6
• 作者: VanMeter,Anna;Goldstein,BenjaminI;Goldstein,TinaR;Yen,Shirley;Hower,Heather;Strober,Michael;Merranko,JohnA;Gill,MaryKay;Diler,RasimS;Axelson,David;Ryan,NealD;Keller,MartinB;Birmaher,Boris
• 通讯作者: Birmaher,Boris

A risk calculator to predict suicide attempts among individuals with early-onset bipolar disorder.

用于预测早发性双相情感障碍患者自杀企图的风险计算器。

• DOI: 10.1111/bdi.13250
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Bipolar disorders
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Goldstein,TinaR;Merranko,John;Hafeman,Danella;Gill,MaryKay;Liao,Fangzi;Sewall,Craig;Hower,Heather;Weinstock,Lauren;Yen,Shirley;Goldstein,Benjamin;Keller,Martin;Strober,Michael;Ryan,Neal;Birmaher,Boris
• 通讯作者: Birmaher,Boris

The Effect of Traumatic Events on the Longitudinal Course and Outcomes of Youth with Bipolar Disorder.

创伤事件对患有双相情感障碍的青少年的纵向病程和结果的影响。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2020.05.131
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of affective disorders
• 影响因子: 6.6
• 作者: AndreuPascual,Maria;Levenson,JessicaC;Merranko,John;Gill,MaryKay;Hower,Heather;Yen,Shirley;Strober,Michael;Goldstein,TinaR;Goldstein,BenjaminI;Ryan,NealD;Weinstock,LaurenM;Keller,MartinB;Axelson,David;Birmaher,Boris
• 通讯作者: Birmaher,Boris

Higher socioeconomic status and less parental psychopathology improve prognosis in youths with bipolar disorder.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2022.01.058
• 发表时间: 2022-04-01
• 期刊: Journal of affective disorders
• 影响因子: 6.6
• 作者: Diler RS;Merranko JA;Hafeman D;Goldstein TR;Goldstein BI;Hower H;Gill MK;Axelson DA;Ryan N;Strober M;Keller MB;Yen S;Hunt JI;Weinstock LM;Iyengar S;Birmaher BB
• 通讯作者: Birmaher BB

Validation of the youth mood recurrences risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2021.09.037
• 发表时间: 2021-09
• 期刊: Journal of affective disorders
• 影响因子: 6.6
• 作者: J. Fiedorowicz;J. Merranko;S. Iyengar;H. Hower;M. Gill;S. Yen;T. Goldstein;Michael Strober;D. Haf