PARATUS HORIZON-CL3-2021-DRS-01-03 101073954

目前的大流行病和气候危机给我们上了关于复合灾害的系统性影响的惨痛教训。灾害风险管理的利益攸关方面临调整其减少风险政策和应急计划的挑战，但缺乏工具来说明所涉风险的跨部门影响和动态性质。Paratus项目旨在通过开发一个动态风险评估的开放源码平台来填补这一空白，该平台能够根据系统性脆弱性和不确定性分析和评估多危害影响链、减少风险措施和灾害应对方案。这些服务将在一个独特的跨学科联盟内共同创建，该联盟由研究组织、非政府组织、中小企业、第一和第二响应者以及地方和地区当局组成。为了更深入地了解多危害影响链，Paratus将首先对历史灾害事件进行法医分析，用灾害相互作用和行业影响充实历史灾害数据库，并利用人工智能方法开发遥感数据。在这些见解的基础上，Paratus将开发新的风险暴露和脆弱性分析方法，以实现跨部门(例如人道主义、运输、通信)和地理环境(例如岛屿、山脉、特大城市)的系统性风险评估。这些方法将被用来分析空间和时间上的风险变化，并利用创新的严肃游戏和社会模拟，与利益攸关方一起制定新的情景和风险缓解方案。这些成果将设在与危机管理和人道主义救济有关的两个利益攸关方中心，并为利益攸关方提供一系列工具，用于在动态的多种危险环境中进行风险减少规划。在利益相关者的积极参与下，以服务为导向的方法将最大限度地提高该项目的接受度和影响力，并有助于提高欧洲对复杂灾难的适应能力。

The ongoing pandemic and climate crisis have taught us hard lessons about the systemic impact of compounding disasters. Stakeholders in disaster risk management are faced with the challenge to adapt their risk reduction policies and emergency plans but lack the tools to account for the cross-sectoral impacts and dynamic nature of the risks involved. The PARATUS project aims to fill this gap by developing an open-source platform for dynamic risk assessment that allows to analyse and evaluate multi-hazard impact chains, risk reduction measures, and disaster response scenarios in the light of systemic vulnerabilities and uncertainties. These services will be co-created within a unique transdisciplinary consortium of research organisations, NGOs, SMEs, first and second responders, and local and regional authorities. To gain a deeper understanding of multi-hazard impact chains, PARATUS will first conduct forensic analysis on historical disaster events, augment historical disaster databases with hazard interactions and sectorial impacts, and exploit remote sensing data with artificial intelligence methods. Building on these insights, PARATUS will then develop new exposure and vulnerability analysis methods that enable systemic risk assessment across sectors (e.g. humanitarian, transportation, communication) and geographic settings (e.g. islands, mountains, megacities). These methods will be used to analyse risk changes across space and time and to develop new scenarios and risk mitigation options together with stakeholders, using innovative serious games and social simulations. The results will be hosted on two stakeholder hubs related to crisis management and humanitarian relief, and provide stakeholders with a range of tools for risk reduction planning in dynamic multi-hazard environments. The service-oriented approach with active stakeholder involvement will maximise uptake and impact of the project, and help to increase Europe’s resilience to compounding disasters.