PARATUS HORIZON-CL3-2021-DRS-01-03 101073954

当前的大流行病和气候危机让我们深刻认识到灾害加剧的系统性影响。灾害风险管理的利益攸关方面临着调整其减少风险政策和应急计划的挑战，但缺乏考虑所涉风险的跨部门影响和动态性质的工具。PARATUS项目旨在通过开发一个动态风险评估的开源平台来填补这一空白，该平台可以根据系统脆弱性和不确定性分析和评估多灾害影响链、风险降低措施和灾害响应方案。这些服务将在一个由研究机构、非政府组织、中小企业、第一和第二响应者以及地方和地区当局组成的独特的跨学科联盟中共同创建。为了更深入地了解多灾害影响链，PARATUS将首先对历史灾害事件进行取证分析，通过灾害相互作用和部门影响增强历史灾害数据库，并利用人工智能方法利用遥感数据。在这些见解的基础上，PARATUS将开发新的暴露和脆弱性分析方法，实现跨部门（如人道主义、交通、通信）和地理环境（如岛屿、山区、特大城市）的系统风险评估。这些方法将用于分析跨空间和时间的风险变化，并利用创新的严肃游戏和社交模拟，与利益攸关方一起制定新的情景和风险缓解方案。研究结果将由两个与危机管理和人道主义救济相关的利益攸关方中心主持，并为利益攸关方提供一系列工具，用于在动态多灾害环境中进行风险减少规划。以服务为导向的方法和利益相关者的积极参与将使项目的吸收和影响最大化，并有助于提高欧洲对复杂灾害的恢复能力。

The ongoing pandemic and climate crisis have taught us hard lessons about the systemic impact of compounding disasters. Stakeholders in disaster risk management are faced with the challenge to adapt their risk reduction policies and emergency plans but lack the tools to account for the cross-sectoral impacts and dynamic nature of the risks involved. The PARATUS project aims to fill this gap by developing an open-source platform for dynamic risk assessment that allows to analyse and evaluate multi-hazard impact chains, risk reduction measures, and disaster response scenarios in the light of systemic vulnerabilities and uncertainties. These services will be co-created within a unique transdisciplinary consortium of research organisations, NGOs, SMEs, first and second responders, and local and regional authorities. To gain a deeper understanding of multi-hazard impact chains, PARATUS will first conduct forensic analysis on historical disaster events, augment historical disaster databases with hazard interactions and sectorial impacts, and exploit remote sensing data with artificial intelligence methods. Building on these insights, PARATUS will then develop new exposure and vulnerability analysis methods that enable systemic risk assessment across sectors (e.g. humanitarian, transportation, communication) and geographic settings (e.g. islands, mountains, megacities). These methods will be used to analyse risk changes across space and time and to develop new scenarios and risk mitigation options together with stakeholders, using innovative serious games and social simulations. The results will be hosted on two stakeholder hubs related to crisis management and humanitarian relief, and provide stakeholders with a range of tools for risk reduction planning in dynamic multi-hazard environments. The service-oriented approach with active stakeholder involvement will maximise uptake and impact of the project, and help to increase Europe’s resilience to compounding disasters.