Process Attribution of Regional Emissions

世界上只有几个国家，欧洲只有两个国家(通过我们的团队，是英国和瑞士)，他们经常同时使用自下而上(清单)和自上而下(基于大气数据)的方法报告自己的排放量。巴黎会议的中心目标是大大增加对排放评估这一联合方法的采用。我们的目标是通过我们以前的成功证明对清单编制者具有很高价值的研究领域，或者在以前的项目中只探索了一部分。为了让库存团队在项目早期参与进来，我们将重点放在氟化气体(F气体)的新排放估计上，这种气体的来源分布相对简单，但对其大小了解较少。我们将把我们在使用自上而下约束来评估库存F气体模型方面的成熟方法扩展到欧洲的八个国家。对于来源更复杂的甲烷和二氧化碳混合的温室气体(GHGs)，巴黎的研究重点是将通量归因于特定的源和汇。我们将推进我们世界领先的同位素测量和基于示踪剂的分析方法，为库存团队提供目标不确定领域的新信息。对于一氧化二氮，这是一种温室气体，大多数欧洲库存依赖高度简化和不确定的自下而上方法，将提出两个工艺级模型，以产生时间和空间分辨率的估计，并将根据同位素数据进行评估。对于重要但复杂的气候作用力、有机物气溶胶和黑碳，我们将通过发展来源解析方法，采取下一步必要的步骤，以实现强大的自上而下的排放推断。为了产生最大的影响，我们将以八个巴黎重点国家的国家清单报告年度附件草案的形式综合这些进展。如果被采纳，这将意味着全球在NIR中包含自上而下排放估计的国家数量几乎翻了两番。

There are only a few countries worldwide, and only two in Europe (the UK and Switzerland, via our team), who routinely report their emissions using bottom-up (inventory) and top-down (atmospheric data-based) methods together. The central aim of PARIS is to significantly increase the uptake of this joint approach to emissions evaluation. We target research areas that have been shown, through our previous successes, to be of high value to inventory compilers, or have been only partly explored in previous projects. To engage inventory teams early in the project, we focus on new emissions estimates for fluorinated gases (F-gases), which have relatively simple source distributions, but poorly understood magnitudes. We will extend to eight countries across Europe our proven approach in using top down constraints to evaluate inventory F-gas models. For greenhouse gases (GHGs) with a more complex mixture of sources, methane and carbon dioxide, research in PARIS focuses on the attribution of fluxes to particular sources and sinks. We will advance our world leading isotopologue measurements and tracer-based analysis methods, providing inventory teams with new information to target areas of uncertainty. For nitrous oxide, a GHG for which most European inventories rely on highly simplified and uncertain bottom-up methods, two process-level models will be advanced to produce time- and space-resolved estimates that will be evaluated against isotopic data. For the important, but complex, climate forcers, organic matter aerosol and black carbon, we will take the next steps required towards robust top-down emissions inference by developing source apportionment methods. To generate maximum impact, we will synthesise these advances in the form of draft annual Annexes to National Inventory Reports (NIRs) for eight PARIS focus countries. If adopted, this will represent almost a quadrupling of the number of countries globally that include top-down emissions estimates in their NIRs.