Detection and Attribution of Regional greenhouse gas Emissions in the UK (DARE-UK)

为了减轻气候变化的影响，政府、私营公司和公民个人正在采取行动减少温室气体的排放。我们的项目将提供新的信息，可用于更好地评估这些行动导致的排放变化。我们将帮助英国政府跟踪为实现《气候变化法案》（2008）规定的目标而实施的减排政策的有效性，该法案要求到2050年将温室气体排放量在1990年的水平上减少80%。在排放报告和评估方面，英国在最近的科技进步中发挥了重要作用。它的温室气体排放清单是根据与人类活动和每项活动的排放率有关的数据编制的，是世界领先的。此外，英国是仅有的两个定期向联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）提交第二份排放估算的国家之一，该估算来自大气测量。这第二个“自上而下”的估计可以用来评估库存中哪些地方存在不确定性，哪些地方需要进一步开发。然而，我们的科学知识和技术能力存在局限性，这阻碍了英国或任何其他国家通过纳入大气数据进一步改进其排放报告。通过2017年结束的NERC温室气体和排放反馈计划，我们展示了利用大气观测量化英国国家温室气体净通量的能力。然而，我们还不能单独估计化石燃料和生物圈二氧化碳的来源和汇，或者确定推动英国甲烷排放变化的主要部门。这一建议将发展新的科学来解决这些需求，并为下一代温室气体评估方法铺平道路。我们的工作将跨越四个关键领域：1)改进单个源和汇部门的排放模型，以确定自然和人为系统向大气排放温室气体的时间和地点。2)利用新的地面和卫星大气温室气体观测，例如甲烷和二氧化碳的同位素测量，以及共同排放或交换气体（氧气、一氧化碳、二氧化氮和乙烷）的测量，以提供不同部门排放的信息。3)利用增强的模型数据融合方法来利用这些新的观测结果，并更好地量化不确定性。4)整合数据流，以确定英国排放估计的最高置信度。为了提高国家报告的透明度，科学家和决策者一直强烈主张在报告过程中结合使用这些方法。《联合国气候变化框架公约》在其2017年缔约方大会上承认，通过大气观测量化的排放在支持清单评估方面可以发挥重要作用（SBSTA/2017/L.21）。通过我们与英国和世界各地的清单社区、IPCC和英国政策制定者的密切联系，我们可以确保我们的工作将用于更新和改进英国向《联合国气候变化框架公约》提交的温室气体报告，并将展示最佳实践方法。

In order to mitigate the effects of climate change, governments, private companies and individual citizens are taking action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Our project will provide new information that can be used to better evaluate the change in emissions that result from these actions. We will help the UK government track the effectiveness of emissions reductions policies that have been implemented to meet the targets laid out in the Climate Change Act (2008), which mandates that GHG emissions are reduced by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The UK has played a major part in recent scientific and technological advances in emissions reporting and evaluation. Its GHG emission inventory, which is compiled based on data relating to human activities and rates of emission from each activity, is world-leading. Furthermore, the UK is one of only two countries that regularly submits a second estimate of emissions, those derived from atmospheric measurements, as part of its annual United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) submission. This second "top-down" estimate can be used to assess where uncertainties lie in the inventory and where further development is needed. However, limitations exist in our scientific knowledge and in our technical capabilities that prevent the UK, or any other country, from further improving its emissions reports through the incorporation of atmospheric data. Through the NERC Greenhouse Gas & Emissions Feedback programme, which ended in 2017, we demonstrated the ability to quantify the UK's net national GHG fluxes using atmospheric observations. However, we have not yet been able to separately estimate fossil fuel and biospheric carbon dioxide sources and sinks, or determine the major sectors driving changes in the UK's methane emissions. This proposal will develop new science to address these needs, and pave the way towards the next generation of GHG evaluation methodologies. Our work will span four key areas:1) Improving models of emissions from individual source and sink sectors to determine when and where GHG emissions to the atmosphere occur from both natural and anthropogenic systems.2) Utilising new surface and satellite atmospheric GHG observations, such as isotopic measurements of methane and carbon dioxide, and measurements of co-emitted or exchanged gases (oxygen, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and ethane) to provide information on emissions from different sectors.3) Utilising enhanced model-data fusion methods for making use of these new observations and for better quantifying uncertainties.4) Integrating data streams to determine the highest level of confidence in the UK's emissions estimate.To improve the transparency of national reports, scientists and policy makers have been strongly advocating for the combination of such methods in the reporting process. The UNFCCC, at its 2017 Conference of Parties, acknowledged the important role that emissions quantified through atmospheric observations could have in supporting inventory evaluation (SBSTA/2017/L.21). Through our close links to the inventory communities in the UK and around the world, the IPCC and to UK policy makers, we can ensure that our work will be used to update and improve the UK's GHG submission to the UNFCCC and will showcase methods of best-practice.