Land Use Change, Transmission Potential Networks and Disease Spread in Madagascar

马达加斯加的土地利用变化、传播潜力网络和疾病传播

• 批准号: 10493486
• 负责人: Charles Nunn
• 金额: $ 8.03万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-17 至 2024-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10493486
• 关键词: Agriculture; Animals; Area; Babesia; Characteristics; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Coupled; Data; Databases; Disease; Disease Pathway; Domestic Animals; Goals; Health; Helminths; Host-Parasite Relations; Human; Human Activities; Individual; Infection; Infectious Agent; Instruction; Laboratories; Lead; Leptospira; Logistics; Madagascar; Mammals; Mathematics; Modeling; Parasites; Population; Positioning Attribute; Prevalence; Public Health; Research; Research Personnel; Rickettsia; Rural; Scientist; Shapes; Site; Social Network; Socioeconomic Factors; Surveys; System; Testing; Yersinia; Zoonoses; analytical method; anthropogenesis; base; comparative; disease transmission; forest; gastrointestinal; innovation; land use; low income country; multiple data sources; novel strategies; pathogen; social; socioeconomics; transmission process

Anthropogenic land use alters ecological communities, leading to the question: How do these changes alter infectious disease transmission, including to humans? This question is especially important in low-income countries such as Madagascar, where zoonotic diseases remain major threats to public health. The proposed research aims to model the ecological and socioeconomic factors that influence disease spread and predict how infectious agents spread from small mammals and domesticated animals to people. This goal will be pursued through innovative and interdisciplinary field, laboratory, and analytical approaches. The team of ecologists, social scientists, and a mathematician will integrate and model ecological and socioeconomic data from the field site in rural Madagascar, which includes a protected area surrounded by native forest fragments, agricultural fields, and villages of subsistence agriculturalists. Around four villages and in the park, the team will investigate multiple hypotheses concerning how human land use activities shape zoonotic disease transmission. To extend the findings globally, the researchers will use the Global Mammal Parasite Database to investigate how human land use and network connectivity impact host- parasite relationships and prevalence. The interdisciplinary team is uniquely positioned to investigate infectious disease transmission in this system. By integrating multiple data sources into unified mathematical representations, the team will investigate specific hypotheses for how diseases spread using multilayer transmission potential networks (TPNs). Significantly, they will test how TPNs and disease transmission change with human activities and identify the socioeconomic factors that lead some people to be more connected into transmission networks. Specifically, the team will: (i) identify pathways of disease transmission using cutting-edge field and analytical methods, coupled with infectious disease data representing multiple transmission modes; (ii) investigate socioeconomic characteristics of individual humans that most strongly connect them into TPNs of wildlife and domesticated animals; (iii) characterize how human activities generate entry points of infectious disease. Comparative analyses will extend the findings beyond the Malagasy study system. TPNs will be based on trapping data for small mammals, GPS data for people and domesticated animals, and social network surveys for people. The team will test whether these networks predict infection with multiple pathogens, including Leptospira, Yersinia, Babesia, Rickettsia, and gastrointestinal helminths. The research team has all necessary permits, extensive on-the-ground logistical support, and substantial pilot data on human and animal populations at the site.

人为土地的使用改变了生态社区，导致了一个问题：这些变化如何改变感染力 疾病传播，包括人类？这个问题在低收入国家（例如 马达加斯加的人畜共患病仍然对公共卫生的主要威胁。拟议的研究旨在对 影响疾病的生态和社会经济因素传播并预测感染因素如何从 小型哺乳动物和驯养的动物。这个目标将通过创新和 跨学科领域，实验室和分析方法。生态学家，社会科学家和一个团队 数学家将从马达加斯加乡村的现场集成和模拟生态和社会经济数据， 其中包括一个被本地森林碎片，农田和生存村庄包围的保护区 农业学家。大约四个村庄，在公园里，团队将调查有关如何如何的假设 人类土地使用活动塑造人畜共患病传播。为了扩展全球发现，研究人员将 使用全球哺乳动物寄生虫数据库来研究人类土地使用和网络连通性如何影响宿主 - 寄生虫的关系和流行。 跨学科团队在该系统中的传染病传播方面具有独特的位置。经过 将多个数据源集成到统一的数学表示中，团队将研究特定 假设疾病如何使用多层传输电势网（TPN）传播。值得注意的是，他们会的 测试TPN和疾病传播如何随人类活动而变化，并确定领导的社会经济因素 有些人将更加连接到传输网络。具体而言，团队将：（i）确定 使用尖端领域和分析方法传播疾病，再加上传染病数据 表示多个传输模式； （ii）调查单个人类的社会经济特征 最强烈地将它们连接到野生动物和驯养动物的TPN中； （iii）表征人类活动的方式 产生传染病的入口点。比较分析将把发现扩展到马达加斯加研究之外 系统。 TPN将基于捕获小型哺乳动物的数据，人和家养动物的GPS数据以及 对人的社交网络调查。团队将测试这些网络是否预测多个的感染 病原体，包括钩端螺旋体，耶尔森氏菌，巴布西亚，立克和胃肠道蠕虫。研究小组有 所有必要的许可证，广泛的现场后勤支持以及有关人和动物的大量试点数据 网站上的种群。