Land Use Change, Transmission Potential Networks and Disease Spread in Madagascar

马达加斯加的土地利用变化、传播潜力网络和疾病传播

• 批准号: 10493486
• 负责人: Charles Nunn
• 金额: $ 8.03万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-17 至 2024-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10493486
• 关键词: Agriculture; Animals; Area; Babesia; Characteristics; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Coupled; Data; Databases; Disease; Disease Pathway; Domestic Animals; Goals; Health; Helminths; Host-Parasite Relations; Human; Human Activities; Individual; Infection; Infectious Agent; Instruction; Laboratories; Lead; Leptospira; Logistics; Madagascar; Mammals; Mathematics; Modeling; Parasites; Population; Positioning Attribute; Prevalence; Public Health; Research; Research Personnel; Rickettsia; Rural; Scientist; Shapes; Site; Social Network; Socioeconomic Factors; Surveys; System; Testing; Yersinia; Zoonoses; analytical method; anthropogenesis; base; comparative; disease transmission; forest; gastrointestinal; innovation; land use; low income country; multiple data sources; novel strategies; pathogen; social; socioeconomics; transmission process

Anthropogenic land use alters ecological communities, leading to the question: How do these changes alter infectious disease transmission, including to humans? This question is especially important in low-income countries such as Madagascar, where zoonotic diseases remain major threats to public health. The proposed research aims to model the ecological and socioeconomic factors that influence disease spread and predict how infectious agents spread from small mammals and domesticated animals to people. This goal will be pursued through innovative and interdisciplinary field, laboratory, and analytical approaches. The team of ecologists, social scientists, and a mathematician will integrate and model ecological and socioeconomic data from the field site in rural Madagascar, which includes a protected area surrounded by native forest fragments, agricultural fields, and villages of subsistence agriculturalists. Around four villages and in the park, the team will investigate multiple hypotheses concerning how human land use activities shape zoonotic disease transmission. To extend the findings globally, the researchers will use the Global Mammal Parasite Database to investigate how human land use and network connectivity impact host- parasite relationships and prevalence. The interdisciplinary team is uniquely positioned to investigate infectious disease transmission in this system. By integrating multiple data sources into unified mathematical representations, the team will investigate specific hypotheses for how diseases spread using multilayer transmission potential networks (TPNs). Significantly, they will test how TPNs and disease transmission change with human activities and identify the socioeconomic factors that lead some people to be more connected into transmission networks. Specifically, the team will: (i) identify pathways of disease transmission using cutting-edge field and analytical methods, coupled with infectious disease data representing multiple transmission modes; (ii) investigate socioeconomic characteristics of individual humans that most strongly connect them into TPNs of wildlife and domesticated animals; (iii) characterize how human activities generate entry points of infectious disease. Comparative analyses will extend the findings beyond the Malagasy study system. TPNs will be based on trapping data for small mammals, GPS data for people and domesticated animals, and social network surveys for people. The team will test whether these networks predict infection with multiple pathogens, including Leptospira, Yersinia, Babesia, Rickettsia, and gastrointestinal helminths. The research team has all necessary permits, extensive on-the-ground logistical support, and substantial pilot data on human and animal populations at the site.

人为土地利用改变了生态群落，这就引出了一个问题：这些变化如何改变了传染性疾病， 疾病传播，包括人类？这个问题在低收入国家尤其重要， 在马达加斯加，人畜共患病仍然是公共卫生的主要威胁。拟议的研究旨在对 影响疾病传播的生态和社会经济因素，并预测传染源如何从 小型哺乳动物和家养动物。这一目标将通过创新和 跨学科领域，实验室和分析方法。这个由生态学家、社会科学家和 这位数学家将整合并模拟来自马达加斯加农村实地的生态和社会经济数据， 其中包括一个被原生森林碎片、农田和生计村庄包围的保护区 农学家在四个村庄和公园里，研究小组将调查关于如何 人类土地利用活动影响人畜共患病传播。为了在全球范围内推广这一发现，研究人员将 利用全球哺乳动物寄生虫数据库调查人类土地利用和网络连通性如何影响宿主- 寄生虫关系和流行率。 该跨学科团队具有独特的优势，可以调查该系统中的传染病传播。通过 将多个数据源集成到统一的数学表示中，该团队将研究具体的 使用多层传播潜力网络（TPN）对疾病如何传播的假设。重要的是，他们会 测试主题方案网络和疾病传播如何随着人类活动而变化，并确定导致疾病传播的社会经济因素。 一些人将更多地连接到传输网络中。具体而言，该小组将：（一）确定 使用尖端的领域和分析方法，加上传染病数据， 代表多种传播模式;（ii）调查个体人类的社会经济特征， 最有力地将它们与野生动物和家养动物的主题方案网络联系起来;（三）说明人类活动如何 产生传染病的进入点。比较分析将使调查结果超出马达加斯加的研究范围 系统主题方案网络将基于小型哺乳动物的捕获数据、人和驯养动物的全球定位系统数据， 社会网络调查的人。研究小组将测试这些网络是否能预测感染多种 病原体，包括钩端螺旋体、耶尔森氏菌、巴氏杆菌、立克次氏体和胃肠道蠕虫。研究团队已经 所有必要的许可证，广泛的地面后勤支持，以及大量的人和动物试验数据 现场的人口。