The Impact of Land Use Change on Transmission Potential Networks and Disease Spread in Rural Madagascar

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ABSTRACT Anthropogenic land-use change influences multiple dimensions of infectious disease transmission among humans and other animals. Under parent grant RO1 TW011493, we are integrating ecological and social sciences approaches to investigate zoonotic disease emergence in rural Madagascar, where several zoonotic diseases represent significant public health challenges. To capture the complexity of dynamics at the human-animal interface, we are studying multiple host and pathogen species along gradients of land use change. An overarching goal of the research is to build epidemiologically relevant networks that represent close-contact and environmental overlap among humans, domesticated mammals, and wild small mammals, and to test whether these “transmission potential networks” predict infection patterns in human populations (i.e., health disparities). This supplemental request extends this research to consider the effects of Climate Change and Health (CCH). We will pursue two Specific Aims to establish initial findings that, if confirmatory, will advance the Specific Aims of the parent grant while also serving as initial data for future funding applications focused on CCH. In Specific Aim 1, we will investigate how knowledge and perceptions of climate change are impacting rural farmers’ decisions about land use, and the impact of climate change on health and food security. We will also consider how a farmer’s connectedness on social networks relates to their perceptions of climate change and resilience to extreme weather and food insecurity. In Specific Aim 2, we will investigate interacting effects of land use change and climate change on small mammal communities and the zoonotic pathogens that they harbor. To do so, we will initiate a new long-term study on weather patterns at eight locations at one of our study sites, and then combine these new data with previous data from within the National Park to assess climate change in the area. We will also quantify the degree of land use change that has occurred on nine trapping grids and investigate how land use change influences the mammal communities and their pathogens on those grids. Success with these research aims will enable us to begin addressing questions related to CCH in this study system, while positioning our team for new funding to investigate additional CCH questions in the next phases of our research. This research will address two of the NIH’s Core Pillars of the CCH Initiative: Health Effects Research and Health Equity.