The Impact of Land Use Change on Transmission Potential Networks and Disease Spread in Rural Madagascar

摘要 人为土地利用变化影响传染病的多个层面 在人类和其他动物之间传播。根据母公司赠款RO1 TW011493，我们是 整合生态学和社会科学方法研究人畜共患病 在马达加斯加农村出现了几种人畜共患病， 健康挑战。为了捕捉人类与动物界面的复杂动态，我们 研究沿着土地利用变化梯度的多种寄主和病原物种。一个 研究的总体目标是建立流行病学相关网络， 人类、家养哺乳动物和野生动物之间的密切接触和环境重叠 小型哺乳动物，并测试这些“潜在的传播网络”是否能预测感染 人类群体中的模式（即，健康差距）。这一补充请求扩大了这一点， 气候变化与健康（CCH）的影响。我们将追捕两名 确定初步调查结果，如果得到证实，将促进 父母补助金同时也作为未来资金申请的初始数据，重点是 谢谢在具体目标1中，我们将研究气候变化的知识和看法如何影响气候变化。 正在影响农村农民关于土地使用的决定，以及气候变化对 卫生和粮食安全。我们还将考虑一个农民在社会上的连通性如何 网络与他们对气候变化的看法和对极端天气的适应能力有关， 粮食不安全。在具体目标2中，我们将研究土地利用变化的相互影响， 气候变化对小型哺乳动物群落及其携带的人畜共患病病原体的影响。到 我们会在其中一个地区的八个地点进行一项新的长期天气模式研究， 研究地点，然后将这些新数据与国家公园内以前的数据相结合 评估该地区的气候变化。我们亦会量化土地用途改变的程度， 发生在九个陷阱网格，并调查土地利用变化如何影响 哺乳动物群落和它们的病原体。这些研究目标的成功 将使我们能够开始解决本研究系统中与CCH相关的问题， 为我们的团队提供新的资金，以便在下一阶段调查更多的CCH问题 我们的研究。这项研究将解决NIH的CCH倡议的两个核心支柱： 健康影响研究和健康公平。

ABSTRACT Anthropogenic land-use change influences multiple dimensions of infectious disease transmission among humans and other animals. Under parent grant RO1 TW011493, we are integrating ecological and social sciences approaches to investigate zoonotic disease emergence in rural Madagascar, where several zoonotic diseases represent significant public health challenges. To capture the complexity of dynamics at the human-animal interface, we are studying multiple host and pathogen species along gradients of land use change. An overarching goal of the research is to build epidemiologically relevant networks that represent close-contact and environmental overlap among humans, domesticated mammals, and wild small mammals, and to test whether these “transmission potential networks” predict infection patterns in human populations (i.e., health disparities). This supplemental request extends this research to consider the effects of Climate Change and Health (CCH). We will pursue two Specific Aims to establish initial findings that, if confirmatory, will advance the Specific Aims of the parent grant while also serving as initial data for future funding applications focused on CCH. In Specific Aim 1, we will investigate how knowledge and perceptions of climate change are impacting rural farmers’ decisions about land use, and the impact of climate change on health and food security. We will also consider how a farmer’s connectedness on social networks relates to their perceptions of climate change and resilience to extreme weather and food insecurity. In Specific Aim 2, we will investigate interacting effects of land use change and climate change on small mammal communities and the zoonotic pathogens that they harbor. To do so, we will initiate a new long-term study on weather patterns at eight locations at one of our study sites, and then combine these new data with previous data from within the National Park to assess climate change in the area. We will also quantify the degree of land use change that has occurred on nine trapping grids and investigate how land use change influences the mammal communities and their pathogens on those grids. Success with these research aims will enable us to begin addressing questions related to CCH in this study system, while positioning our team for new funding to investigate additional CCH questions in the next phases of our research. This research will address two of the NIH’s Core Pillars of the CCH Initiative: Health Effects Research and Health Equity.