Aviation Industry COVID-19 Recovery

国际航空运输协会（IATA）估计，由于旅行限制及其后果，2019冠状病毒病大流行将使航空业损失超过3，140亿美元，使2020年的收入减少48%（IATA COVID-19最新影响评估，2020年4月14日）。 2020年4月，国际民用航空组织（ICAO）报告称，英国的定期航班减少了89%，2020年下半年航空公司收入损失的成本可能接近160亿美元。2020年，英国的整体GDP将因COVID-19而减少6. 5%，成本接近2，000亿美元。对欧洲航空公司收入的总体影响将是2020年全年收入乘客公里数（包括国际和国内）减少55%，成本为890亿美元（ICAO文件：新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）对民航的影响：经济影响分析，2020年4月15日）。 该项目的愿景是分析COVID-19疫情的进展，并预测航空业的复苏。该项目最初涉及模拟COVID-19疫情的进展，然后将按地区为商用飞机机队开发“恢复服务”模型。 SATAVIA支持英国呼吸机挑战项目（www.ventilatorchallengeuk.com），提供关于估计呼吸机数量的数据分析。SATAVIA数据科学团队已经开发出基于大流行病进展建模预测呼吸机数量需求的能力。数据科学团队中的一些人以前有流行病学背景，这使我们能够快速开发出分析级模型。 我们打算扩展SATAVIA目前的“envirotech”软件平台，以包括流行病学分析能力。主要目标是：（1）将COVID-19预测方法与置信区间相结合，使用历史数据进行测试，并验证预测;模拟COVID-19病例的进展如何与气候条件和政策干预相关联，并使用此来了解恢复航空旅行的选项。 增强功能的主要重点是提供对行业复苏的近实时分析，因为旅行限制已经发布，以预测2021年的商业飞行活动。 该项目具有高度创新性，因为它汇集了一个多元化和高能力的数据科学团队，并扩展了SATAVIA的软件技术，以聚合从流行病学到大气和气候分析的各种数据源，为一个对全球经济至关重要的行业提供服务。在项目过程中，SATAVIA与商业和商务航空领域的许多飞机运营商建立了联系。影响扩展资金将使SATAVIA能够参与演示，并需要进一步开发以直接从组织中获取乘客数据。需要进一步开展工作，以开发可扩展的基于云的解决方案;提供运营数据馈送;集成到SATAVIA API中;以及开发SDK（软件开发工具包），供第三方直接集成到其解决方案中。

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is estimating that the COVID-19 pandemic will cost the airline industry more than $314 billion, reducing revenues by 48% in 2020, as a result of travel restrictions and their aftermath (IATA COVID-19 Updated Impact Assessment, 14 April 2020). In April 2020, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) reported that scheduled flights in the UK were down by 89% and the cost of lost airline revenue in the second half of 2020 may be close to $16 billion. Overall GDP in the UK will be reduced as a result of COVID-19 by 6.5% in 2020, at a cost close to $200 billion. The total impact on European airline revenue will be a 55% reduction in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (both international and domestic) for the full year 2020, at a cost of $89 billion (ICAO document: Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis, 15 April 2020). The vision of the project is to analyse the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic and predict the recovery of the aviation industry. The project initially involves modelling the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic and then will develop a 'return to service' model for the commercial aircraft fleet, region by region. SATAVIA has supported the Ventilator Challenge UK project (www.ventilatorchallengeuk.com) to provide data analytics on estimated ventilator numbers. The SATAVIA data science team has developed capability to predict ventilator number requirements based on modelling of the progression of the pandemic. Several of the data science team previously have epidemiological backgrounds which enabled us to quickly develop an analytical grade model. We intend to extend SATAVIA's current 'envirotech' software platform to include epidemiological analysis capability. Key objectives will be to: (1) Integrate COVID-19 forecasting methodology with confidence intervals, test using historic data, and validate the predictions; model how the progression of COVID-19 cases correlate with climatic conditions and policy interventions, and the use this to understand options for air travel to resume. The main focus of the enhanced capability will offer a near-real-time analysis of industry recovery as travel restrictions are released to predict commercial flight activity into 2021\. The project is highly innovative as it brings together a diverse and highly capable data science team, and extends SATAVIA's software technology to aggregate a diverse range of data sources spanning epidemiological to atmosphere and climate analysis, for an industry that is a critical part of the global economy.During the course of the project, SATAVIA has developed leads with a number of aircraft operators in commercial and business aviation. The Extension for Impact funding will enable SATAVIA to engage in demonstrations and further development is required to ingest passenger data directly from the organisations. Further work is required to develop a scalable, cloud based solution; to provide an operational data feed; integration into the SATAVIA API; and the development of a SDK (software development kit) for third parties to integrate directly into their solutions.