Predicting and Meeting Food Bank needs

COVID-19导致对食品银行服务的需求激增，但同时也限制了它们的帮助能力。食品银行为当地社区提供宝贵的服务：提供食品援助；作为联络其他本地社区服务的渠道；就可能的福利待遇提供建议，最重要的是提供人情味——能够坐下来喝杯茶，交谈并被倾听。所有这些服务都是为社区中需要食物银行帮助的人提供的社会和心理健康服务。然而，在最需要它们的时候，社会距离和经济冲击给食品银行带来了巨大压力。许多当地的捐赠点，如礼拜场所或商店的捐赠点已经关闭。超市里的捐赠点是不可用的，或者被那些绝望的人使用。当购买罐头食品受到限制以确保公平获取时，金钱捐赠的效用有限。收到的捐赠数量的不确定性反过来又限制了食品银行评估他们在任何一周内能够提供多少食品援助包的能力，而此时需求正在增加。该项目将使用数据科学预测和预测建模技术，使食品银行能够更准确地评估当地社区的预测需求和预期捐赠供应。利用这一点，食品银行将能够在库存变得至关重要之前向他们的支持者提出具体短缺物品的知情请求；与所在地区的其他食品援助组织合作，确保供应的广度。总体结果将是：减少收到的捐款的波动性；增加粮食银行支持当地家庭的能力；提高当地社区对食物银行的认识，最重要的是减少食物银行志愿者的计划时间，这样他们就有更多的时间来关注食物银行的关键人性化方面——一个理解并想要帮助他们的人的倾听。“扩展影响”的效果将使我们能够在整个冬季继续与我们的合作伙伴食品银行合作，以改进对他们最有利的支持，并改进他们想要的信息最有益的呈现和获取方式。它将使所有相关人员能够评估所做预测的影响，从而帮助食物银行在社区层面制定变化计划，以便他们能够继续帮助那些有需要的人。

COVID-19 has created a surge in demand for the services of food banks yet at the same time limited their ability to help. Food banks offer invaluable local community services: providing food aid; acting as a conduit to other local community services; advising on possible benefit entitlement and crucially offering the human touch -- the ability to sit and have a cup of tea, to talk and be heard. All of these services social and mental health of those in the community who need the help of food banks.Yet when they are needed most, social distancing and shocks to the economy places a huge strain on food banks. Many local donation points, such as those at places of worship or in shops have been closed. Donation points at supermarkets are unavailable or used by those in desperation. Monetary donations have limited utility when the purchasing of tinned food is limited to ensure fair access. The uncertainty in the volume of donations received in turn limits a food bank's ability to assess how many food aid packages they will be able to provide in any givenweek, at a time when the need is increasing.This project will use data science forecasting and predictive modelling techniques, to enable food banks to more accurately assess predicted demand from the local community alongside expected supply of donations. Using this, the food banks will be able to make informed requests to their supporters for specific shortage items before stock becomes critical; work with other food aid organisations in their area to ensure breadth of supplies.The overall result will be to: reduce the volatility in donations received; increase capacity for the food banks to support local families; raise awareness of the food banks in the local community and crucially reduce the planning time for volunteers at food banks so they have more time for the critical human aspects of food banks -- a listening ear by someone who understands and wants to help.The effects of the “extension for Impact” will be to enable us to continue working with our partner food banks throughout the winter months to refine the support that is of most benefit to them and improve the way in which the information they would like is most beneficially presented and accessed. It will enable all involved to assess the impact to which the predictions made help the foodbanks plan for changes at a community level so that they can continue to help those in need.