Dynamic demand planning

CARE Planner是一个在线工具，紧急NHS信托机构可以在covid - 19之后使用该工具进行计划并优先考虑需求和能力。我们的NHS对covid - 19的反应非同寻常。取消所有选择性手术、（在9天内）新增4000多张床位和重新部署数千名工作人员等措施意味着，NHS已经能够应对covid - 19的高峰需求，并有多余的能力。但这是有代价的。死亡率数据显示，非covid - 19死亡人数有所上升（无法获得基本医疗保健的人？），等候名单将增加270万患者，因为没有进行选择性手术。按照任何标准，这一积压都是巨大的，NHS需要有效地规划来管理这一问题，并尽量减少covid - 19对国家健康的进一步影响。因此，NHS面临的下一个挑战是尽可能平稳、尽快地恢复正常。Edge CARE Planner可以帮助医院做到这一点。它是一种交互式需求和容量规划工具，利用模拟技术和人工智能，帮助NHS信托机构了解积压的患者，他们的可用容量并相应地确定优先级。CARE Planner是一个在线工具，可以快速部署并根据当地情况进行校准。急性信托可以使用CARE Planner来模拟不同情景的影响，了解不确定性的影响并做出相应的规划。CARE Planner定期更新，因此基础模型正在从最新数据中学习，并适应国家政策和地方优先事项的变化。CARE Planner已与试点NHS信托一起开发，以确保产出有价值和及时，并与典型急性信托面临的规划和优先级挑战相关。

CARE Planner is an online tool which acute NHS trusts can use plan and prioritise demand and capacity in the wake of COVID19\.The response of our NHS to COVID19 is extraordinary. Measures such as cancelling all elective surgery, creating 4000+ additional beds (within 9 days) and redeploying thousands of staff mean that the NHS has been able to cope with peak COVID19 demand, with capacity to spare. But this has come at cost. Mortality data shows that non-COVID19 deaths have risen (people not accessing essential health care?) and waiting lists will rise by 2.7m patients because elective surgery is not happening. By any standard, this backlog is huge, and the NHS will need to plan effectively to mange this and to minimise further impacts of COVID19 on the health of the nation.Hence, the next challenge for the NHS is to transition back to normality as smoothly and as quickly possible. The Edge CARE Planner helps hospitals do exactly that. It is an interactive demand and capacity planning tool, drawing on simulation techniques and artificial intelligence, to help NHS trusts understand the backlog of patients, their available capacity and prioritise accordingly.CARE Planner is an online tool that can be deployed quickly and calibrated to fit local circumstances. Acute trusts can use CARE Planner to simulate the impact of different scenarios, understand the impact of uncertainties and plan accordingly. CARE Planner is updated regularly so the underlying models are learning from the latest data and adapting to changes in national policy and local priorities.CARE Planner has been developed with pilot NHS trusts, to ensure the outputs are valuable and timely, and relevant to the planning and prioritisation challenges facing typical acute trusts.